Staff Reports
In recent times, the world has witnessed a troubling resurgence of al-Qaeda, particularly its Mali branch, Jamaat Nusraat al-Islam Wuslamin, better known as JN or Janim. With its fighters knocking on the doors of the capital city, Bamako, the threat looms large, bringing chaos and uncertainty to the residents and prompting the U.S. embassy to initiate an evacuation. If Bamako falls into the hands of these militants, the entire country of Mali could potentially fall under their influence, making the situation dire not just for Mali, but for the entire Sahel region.
Janin, which boasts a force of around 6,000 fighters, has been crafting a web of insurgency across several countries, including Mali. The group has deep-rooted connections with the Taliban and al-Qaeda’s core leadership in Pakistan and Afghanistan. At the heart of Janin’s operations is Iad Agali—a once party-loving tribal leader who transformed into a hardline Islamist over two decades ago. In 2017, Agali united various jihadist factions under the Janin banner, pledging loyalty to al-Qaeda. Since then, the group has exploited the existing fractures in governance to expand its influence, turning the Sahel into a hotspot for global terrorism.
The situation began to spiral significantly after 2014, when French forces, supported by the U.S., intervened to assist local governments in countering al-Qaeda. While initial efforts were successful in pushing back the militants, they were never completely eradicated. Frustration within military ranks eventually led to a wave of coups beginning in Mali in 2020, as new military leaders opted to expel Western forces and realign with Russia. This move inadvertently created a vacuum that Janin has seized upon to expand its operations.
With the withdrawal of Vagner mercenaries and the arrival of inexperienced Russian defense forces, Janin found an opportunity to grow bolder. Armed with weapons captured from convoys, the group began a campaign of sieging Bamako rather than a traditional assault, cutting off the city’s access to essential supplies such as fuel and food. As a result, residents now face lengthy waits for fuel, blackouts, and skyrocketing food prices, plunging an already vulnerable population into further despair.
In the face of these mounting challenges, Mali’s military forces continue to push back against Janin through drone strikes and raids, but the militants have proven to be agile and resilient. They have established control over vast rural areas, capitalizing on local discontent against the oppressive tactics of Vagner and the military. Many villagers, frustrated by the violence inflicted upon them, are increasingly turning to Janin for protection. The group’s ability to navigate the armed conflict landscape—rather than directly engaging in street battles—could allow them to take advantage of Mali’s weakened state without a single shot being fired.
The stakes are high, and with Mali’s military now considering a dialogue with the United States for greater cooperation, the coming days could see a shift in strategy. However, the threat posed by Janin and its affiliates remains significant, raising concerns not just for Mali, but also for neighboring countries. As Janin continues to assert its presence, analysts are left pondering whether another chapter of jihadist expansion may be on the horizon, fostering a renewed era of instability across the Sahel and potentially beyond.
