Staff Reports
Welcome news came for the Democratic Party in the race for the Arizona Senate seat, as the nonpartisan election forecaster CookPoliticalReport shifted its prediction to “lean Democrat.” This change is due to concerns within the Republican Party about the electability of their front-runner, Kari Lake, in the upcoming election.
With the Senate majority at stake, the CookPoliticalReport’s analysis pointed out that despite Republicans recruiting candidates in other states, Arizona presents a significant challenge for them. Kari Lake, who previously lost her bid for governor and has a strong alliance with former President Donald Trump, faces doubts within her own party over her past claims of fraudulent elections.
The race to fill the seat vacated by Senator Kyrsten Sinema has drawn attention due to the potential impact on Senate control. CookPoliticalReport’s assessment leaves just three states in the “toss-up” column, with Arizona now leaning toward the Democratic candidate, Rep. Ruben Gallego. This shift raises questions about the allocation of resources by the Republican Party’s Senate campaign arm and the overall competitiveness of the race.
In addition to CookPoliticalReport, Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics also rated the Arizona Senate race as “lean Democrat.” Recent polling has shown Gallego with an advantage, but the race remains within the margins of error.
Both candidates have launched significant advertising campaigns, with Gallego investing $19 million and a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer contributing an additional $23 million. Meanwhile, Lake has started an airwave campaign worth $10 million.
The Arizona Senate race now presents a crucial battleground for both parties as they vie for control of the Senate.
