Staff Reports
The current presidential election has been an action movie—shootouts, plot twists, and an underdog rising to the challenge. The recent assassination attempt on former and likely future President Donald Trump could turn the already fired-up MAGA crowd into a veritable wildfire, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania, where the shooting occurred. But don’t think it’s just Pennsylvania in play. Trump’s campaign is eyeing states that Democrats thought were locked away in their politically correct treasure chest, including Virginia—a state that has been blue since 2008.
Here’s a quick history lesson. The Democrats have been sitting pretty in Virginia since 2008, even boasting a Biden win with a 10-point lead in 2020. But the winds of change swept through Virginia in 2021 when Glenn Youngkin, Winsome Earle Sears, and Jason Miyares—all Republicans—were elected, ending a 12-year Democratic stranglehold on the governor’s mansion. These political shifts could spell disaster for Biden, who suddenly finds Virginia marked as a “Toss-Up” by RealClearPolitics.
Town Hall: Biden Won Virginia by +10 in 2020. Here's How He's Polling There Now. https://t.co/3ojo2zyioT
— Ian Hansen 🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@IanHansenFeed) July 16, 2024
Polls are the horoscopes of politics—everyone interprets them differently. RealClearPolitics is nudging Trump slightly ahead but within the margin of error. Let’s talk brass tacks: Decision Desk HQ gave Biden a 76% chance of winning Virginia. But these odds seem shakier than Biden on a bicycle given that he’s only barely ahead in recent polls, and at least one poll has Trump leading numerically.
The New York Times couldn’t hide its sweat, warning in big, bold letters that Biden faces steep challenges in must-win states like Pennsylvania and Virginia. If Biden can’t lock down Pennsylvania, his path to re-election is narrower than CNN’s credibility. The polls, conducted before and after the Trump assassination attempt, show Trump within striking distance. The VCU-Wilder School poll even had Trump ahead by 3 points, while Biden’s dismal approval rating in Virginia circles the drain at 36%.
But let’s not forget about Youngkin—the man who’s emerging as a GOP superstar. Riding high with a 50% approval rating, Youngkin has been vocal in his support for Trump. He shared the stage with Trump at a Virginia rally, reminding everyone of Trump’s stellar business acumen and outsider status. Youngkin isn’t just speaking to Republicans; he’s resonating with independents and even a notable chunk of Democrats disillusioned by Biden’s chaotic tenure.
Virginia’s pivotal congressional races are also fascinating. With Rep. Abigail Spanberger vacating her seat in the 7th District to take a swing at the governor, the battle between Republican Derrick Anderson and Democrat Eugene Vindman will be one to watch. Meanwhile, Republican Jen Kiggans is holding down the fort in the 2nd District after unseating Democrat Elaine Luria in 2022.
Political strategists better buckle up because 2024 isn’t just another election year. It’s set to be a political showdown of epic proportions. With Trump rallying support even after dodging an assassination attempt and Virginia showing signs of flipping red, Biden and the Democrats have their work cut out for them. Ultimately, voters might opt for common sense over chaos, sending a seasoned businessman back to the White House.
