Staff Reports
Before President Biden decided to fall on the sword of political correctness and abandon his reelection bid this past July, nearly everyone agreed on the future of the 2024 presidential race. Former President Donald Trump was poised for a triumphant return to the White House, with Biden headed for a historic defeat. The only mystery left was how large the margin of victory would be and how many down-ballot Democrats would be dragged into the political abyss with him.
Behind the scenes, there were still occasional public polls attempting to offer some glimmer of hope for the Democrats. An NPR-Marist survey released after the disastrous June debate actually had Biden ahead by a meager two points nationally, but that was quickly dismissed as an outlier. Meanwhile, more reliable sources like Fox News and NBC showed Trump with leads of one and two percentage points respectively, with statistics comfortably inside the margin of error.
Election experts raise fresh alarms about vote counting delays – and chaos – in battleground states | CNN
In Pennsylvania, officials are bracing for another presidential election in which the state could once again be the decisive battleground and take days to determine the… pic.twitter.com/xXvmxCvyCS
— Owen Gregorian (@OwenGregorian) September 23, 2024
The more thorough polls from within the Democratic camp revealed a grim picture: Biden was not just losing but also risking the loss of his party’s grip on key states like Virginia, New Hampshire, and even Minnesota. Just like the blue wall that crashed down in 2016, it appeared Biden was setting himself up for an even bigger calamity. Though Biden may fancy himself the hero of this tragic tale—claiming he could have pulled off a win—most of his party was secretly hoping he would bow out gracefully, which he ultimately did just ahead of the Democratic National Convention.
With Vice President Kamala Harris now leading the charge, Democrats have suddenly found fresh wind in their sails—at least that’s the spin coming out of their camp. The race has transformed into a “choose your own adventure” scenario for voters, with Harris outperforming Biden’s dismal strategies and even looking strong compared to his 2020 campaign. Some polls suggest she has reclaimed support, boasting leads of four to six points in various surveys. But, reality check: several other high-quality polls show the race nearly tied, with some even signaling Trump clinging to a narrow advantage.
Despite attempts to paint the election picture rosy for Harris, Gallup’s latest analysis suggests the political climate is still favorable for Republicans. According to their expert, it’s Trump’s race to lose based on almost every measure. However, cautious observers warn that both candidates currently enjoy similar favorable ratings, indicating a neck-and-neck situation that underscores just how unpredictable this election cycle has become.
Digging deeper into the numbers shows that in battleground states like Arizona and Georgia, voters are feeling the positive effects of Trump’s policies far more than they are with Harris’s plan—or lack thereof. Surveys reveal nearly half of respondents in those states believe their financial situation would improve under Trump, while Harris’s supporters are left with gloomy sentiments. Meanwhile, the national RealClearPolitics polling average reveals Harris leading by a scant 2.1 points, not far off from Clinton’s position back in 2016 when she too thought victory was assured.
A slew of strategies within the Trump camp suggests they are poised for a repeat of previous electoral surprises. Trump’s voter turnout initiatives are focusing on those who haven’t shown up for the polls in past elections, and he’s enlisted unusual allies to help motivate these voters. On the flip side, Harris appears to have inherited Biden’s extensive ground game, raising more funds and staffing up to ensure a strong presence in crucial battlegrounds.
As the election draws near, concerns about the outcome lingering for days or weeks have become almost inevitable. With increasing tensions and unpredictability, political analysts are bracing themselves for a twisty finale similar to the cliffhangers of past elections. Democrats may fear a repeat of what was felt in 2016 or 2020, just this time with Harris at the helm. Whispers of political violence festering, regardless of who wins, only add fuel to the ever-burning fire of uncertainty.
In the end, with so much at stake and pressure building on both sides, one thing is for certain: this election will not be boring. And for many, it feels like déjà vu all over again. The stage is set for what could go down in history as another contentious showdown in American politics, and thoughts of “stop the steal 2.0” are swirling in Republican minds. With Trump’s fervent supporters ready to dismiss any untoward election outcomes as rigged, the stakes couldn’t possibly be higher with the clock ticking down to November.
