Staff Reports
President Joe Biden is ramping up efforts to counteract recent polls that indicate he is trailing former President Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential race—a potentially alarming development for his campaign. During a series of events in southeast Wisconsin and Chicago, Biden referenced a Quinnipiac poll showing him ahead of Trump by 6 points but minimized the relevance of polls in general, suggesting to his donors that it is still early in the race and polling can be unpredictable.
Biden's effort to minimize the importance of polling comes amid a broader trend of other polls showing Trump gaining ground. Nationally, Trump leads Biden by 1.2 points, marking a significant shift from Biden's 4.4-point lead at the same point in the 2020 election cycle.
Biden is downplaying polls that show him trailing Trump — how much will they matter? https://t.co/uW4dof7YZS via @dcexaminer
— Fearless45 (@Fearless45Trump) May 10, 2024
Presidential historian and Ronald Reagan biographer Craig Shirley indicates that Biden likely monitors polls closely, despite his public downplaying, and highlights that politicians often dismiss polling when their numbers are slipping. Shirley points to examples like Jimmy Carter and Governor Ron DeSantis, who downplayed their poll numbers as their campaigns faced mounting challenges.
There are historical precedents for politicians overcoming early polling deficits to win elections. One notable example is Harry Truman's unexpected victory in 1948, when he was widely considered an underdog. David Greenberg, a professor at Rutgers University, underscores the limitations and reliability issues of early polling, suggesting that it might be premature to place too much emphasis on these numbers.
Despite Biden's reassurances, his campaign appears to be responding to the polling trend by intensifying attacks on Trump, specifically targeting Trump's position on abortion and his statements about accepting election results. These attacks are likely to increase as the election nears, particularly if polling continues to show Biden trailing Trump in key swing states.
This retelling underscores the complexities of political campaigns and the nuanced relationship candidates have with polling data. While Biden attempts to downplay the significance of current poll numbers, the underlying message points to a campaign potentially facing significant hurdles, as Trump seems to be gaining momentum.
