Staff Reports
President Biden’s coalition is crumbling as Arab voters express their dissatisfaction with his handling of the Israel conflict. It seems that many Arabs believe Biden’s stance to be too favorable towards Israel, leading to a significant drop in his support among Arab voters. In fact, according to the Arab American Institute, Biden’s support has decreased by a staggering 42 percent since 2020. Perhaps even more concerning for Biden is the fact that Arab voters are now nearly twice as likely to prefer President Trump. This shift in support could spell trouble for Biden’s chances in the 2024 election, especially in critical swing states like Michigan, where Arabs make up a sizable minority.
To make matters worse for Biden, this marks the first time in the poll’s history that a majority of Arab Americans do not support the Democratic party. Support for Biden has plummeted from 59 percent three years ago to a mere 17 percent. Surprisingly, more than twice as many Arab Americans now say they would support Trump, with 40 percent expressing their preference for the former president. This is a five-point increase since 2020 when only 35 percent of Arab Americans said they supported Trump.
Adding insult to injury, this poll also reveals that Arab Americans identify more with the Republican party than the Democrats. Currently, 32 percent of Arab Americans align themselves with the Republican party, while only 23 percent identify as Democrats. James Zogby, president and co-founder of the American Arab Institute, stresses the importance of understanding these shifting dynamics and warns that Biden’s coalition is at risk of losing this particular component of the community, referring to Arab Americans.
The Israel crisis has undoubtedly jolted Biden’s campaign, as an overwhelming 66 percent of Arab Americans view his response negatively. These voters also express their desire for Biden to pursue a cease-fire and halt weapons shipments to Israel. However, Biden has rejected calls for a cease-fire, claiming that it is premature and unfair to Israel, particularly in light of the recent brutal attack by Hamas that resulted in the death of 1,400 people, including women and children.
Even Michigan representative Rashida Tlaib, the sole Palestinian in Congress, has openly condemned Biden’s response to the conflict. She has warned Arab and Muslim voters that they will remember where Biden stood during this crisis. With no end in sight for the war in Israel, it is highly likely that disillusioned Arab voters will carry their dissatisfaction into the next election cycle. This is definitely not good news for Biden, and he will have a difficult time regaining the trust and support of this important constituency group.
