Staff Reports
In the 2024 Democratic primary race, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) has thrown his hat into the ring, and President Joe Biden’s team is hoping he turns out to be more like John Ashbrook and less like Ted Kennedy. While Phillips shares more ideological similarities with Kennedy, his political standing resembles that of Ashbrook, who ran a relatively unsuccessful primary challenge against President Richard Nixon in 1972.
Phillips, at 54 years old, has positioned himself as an alternative to President Biden due to his age. With Biden turning 81 in November, Phillips argues that a younger candidate is necessary to avoid a potential loss to former President Donald Trump in a rematch. This strategic approach differs from past primary challenges that typically focused on ideological differences, like Eugene McCarthy’s anti-war campaign against President Lyndon Johnson in 1968.
However, history has shown that serious primary challengers often weaken incumbents. For instance, in 1976, President Gerald Ford faced a tough primary challenge from Ronald Reagan, which led to his loss against Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter. Similarly, Carter was significantly weakened by Kennedy’s liberal primary challenge in 1980, paving the way for Reagan’s victory.
Biden and political allies shrug off @RepDeanPhillips's Democratic primary challenge
DETAILS: https://t.co/Mfl9ge9kIJ https://t.co/Mfl9ge9kIJ
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) November 3, 2023
While Phillips may not be a major threat to Biden’s reelection campaign, he does raise concerns about generational change and Biden’s age. If he can gain traction with this message, it could potentially damage Biden’s support among younger voters. Just look at what happened in 2016 when Bernie Sanders challenged Hillary Clinton from the left and resonated with working-class workers in key swing states.
Nonetheless, the Biden team remains confident in their candidate and his ability to bring together a winning coalition. They view Phillips as a minor nuisance rather than a serious contender. Plus, Biden can take solace in the example of Nixon in 1972, where serious primary challenges did little to sway his chances of reelection.
Overall, Phillips faces an uphill battle in the primary, but his candidacy does highlight potential vulnerabilities for Biden. With low approval ratings and a closely divided electorate, anything can happen in the 2024 race. However, unless Phillips pulls off a shocking upset, it’s unlikely he will be remembered by the Democratic Party stalwarts in future years. He may simply be an asterisk in political history, unlike Ashbrook, who is still revered by conservatives today.
