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A new report by political scientist Eric Kaufmann has grabbed the national conversation by claiming that transgender, nonbinary, and queer identification among young, educated Americans has dropped sharply since peaking in 2023. Kaufmann calls it a “momentous post-progressive cultural shift,” and conservatives should pay attention — not to gloat, but to recognize that cultural tides can turn when truth and common sense are allowed back into the public square.
The numbers Kaufmann highlights are dramatic: large student surveys show nonbinary identification falling from the high single digits to the low single digits at elite campuses, and the massive FIRE student sample reported a fall from roughly 6.8 percent to 3.6 percent in a short period. Schools like Phillips Academy Andover and Brown University are cited as specific examples where nonbinary labels have receded markedly. These shifts suggest the runaway fashions of recent years may be losing steam among young people in academic settings.
At the same time, reputable population research from the Williams Institute reminds us that overall counts of Americans who identify as transgender rose through 2021–2023 and remain a measurable segment of the population, especially among teenagers and young adults. That data tempers any temptation to claim that transgender people have “vanished” — they have not — but it does support the idea that the rapid growth seen in the early 2020s may have plateaued or even reversed in certain cohorts. Conservatives should be honest about the nuance: victories in public opinion are not erasures of real people.
Skeptics and data experts have rightly probed Kaufmann’s methods, pointing out that how one weights and samples survey data can change the headline conclusion, and some analysts say reweighting flips the trend back the other way. Those methodological debates matter and must be engaged with rigorfully rather than dismissed as “woke” or “anti-woke” propaganda. Still, the existence of a contested shift gives conservatives an opening to press for clearer evidence and better policy, rather than simply scoring political points.
For conservative Americans, this moment is less about celebration and more about responsibility. If younger people are indeed stepping back from gender experimentation, we have a duty to protect the vulnerable — to demand careful science, to insist on parental rights, and to stop incentivizing irreversible medical interventions for minors who are still developing mentally and emotionally. Our argument must be principled and compassionate: we care about freedom and the dignity of the person, and we also care about the safety and future of our children.
That means fighting to restore common sense in schools and clinics: transparency about outcomes, rigorous long-term studies before endorsing lifelong treatments, and policies that return decision-making to parents rather than activist institutions. Conservatives should use any cultural breathing room to legislate prudently, fund robust mental-health support, and propose clear safeguards so that confusion does not become a lifetime sentence for a child.
Finally, victory in culture does not mean cruelty. We must stand firm against the medicalization and social engineering of youth while treating every person with dignity. If Kaufmann is right that the fad has peaked, let us act like responsible adults — not triumphant bullies — and build a society where truth, family, and the flourishing of children matter above ideological fervor.
