Staff Reports
The Democrats’ decision to oust Rep. Kevin McCarthy as speaker may come back to haunt them in the battle over government spending. The Democrats watched for nine months as McCarthy struggled to maintain control amid infighting and dysfunction among his own party. They did not come to his aid when a group of conservative Republicans voted to depose him, and this decision led to weeks of turmoil and uncertainty for the GOP.
Johnson speakership spells trouble for Democrats in Washington spending fight https://t.co/FIVPYWm6J2
— Not For Attribution (@NAttribution) October 30, 2023
However, the Republicans may benefit from this turn of events as they face crucial fights over government funding and aid to Ukraine. McCarthy had already been weakened in October, struggling to move spending bills and facing open rebellion from conservatives on the House floor. He promised to push for spending cuts from the Democrats, but even a hard-right funding extension failed to gain support due to the conservatives’ suspicions of his leadership.
In the end, McCarthy had to give in to the Democrats, passing funding with no strings attached. This move ultimately led to his downfall and the election of Mike Johnson as the new speaker. If McCarthy had remained in power, he might have been able to negotiate a yearlong spending deal. However, the same conservative intransigence that denied him leverage in the past would likely have persisted.
Johnson, on the other hand, is seen as a more stable and trustworthy figure by the hard-liners in the party. He is aligned closely with conservatives on fiscal and social issues and will likely have more latitude in coming fights. He may be able to negotiate a better deal with the Democrats, which could spell trouble for the opposition party.
The Democrats wanted a clean funding bill to allow for more time for negotiations, but Johnson is seeking conditions on aid to Israel and Ukraine as well as border policy changes and spending cuts. If the Democrats want to keep the government open and support the war in Ukraine, they may have to make concessions to Johnson. However, the coming battle would have been more in their favor if McCarthy had remained speaker.
Overall, the ousting of McCarthy and the election of Johnson as speaker could have significant implications for the government spending and aid negotiations. Johnson’s conservative ideology and desire for spending cuts may drive a harder bargain than McCarthy would have. The Democrats may find themselves needing to give ground to keep the government open and support their priorities. This turn of events could have long-lasting policy consequences.
