Staff Reports
Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan appears poised to secure the Republican nomination for the Senate in Maryland, creating a stir within the GOP. The party is debating the strategic value of heavily investing in a Senate race in a traditionally Democratic stronghold. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has expressed the Republican Party’s intent to allocate substantial resources to win Senate seats in states like Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. While the prospects in the first three states seem strong for the GOP, Maryland’s heavily Democratic lean raises concerns.
Maryland’s historical voting patterns have favored Democrats since the 1980s. However, the GOP has experienced recent success at the gubernatorial level. Hogan’s victories in 2014 and 2018 have attracted attention, leading to speculation about his potential to win the Senate seat vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Ben Cardin. Despite the state’s partisan inclinations, Hogan’s popularity has endured, creating a potential opportunity for the Republican Party in Maryland.
The GOP should be wary of fool’s gold in the Maryland Senate race https://t.co/mFr7XHwszO
— Jeremiah Poff (@JJ_Poff) May 14, 2024
The general election will see Hogan facing either Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks or Congressman David Trone, both formidable Democratic contenders. While current polling shows Hogan leading, the race remains competitive with a notable number of undecided voters. However, it’s essential to approach Hogan’s candidacy with caution, given recent history.
Senate races have seen popular former governors from both parties run against their state’s political affiliation and ultimately fail to secure a Senate seat. The cautionary tales of Republican Linda Lingle in Hawaii, as well as Democrats Phil Bredesen in Tennessee and Steve Bullock in Montana, serve as stark reminders of the challenges associated with such endeavors. The National Republican Senatorial Committee must carefully consider the allocation of resources, especially in light of the upcoming Senate races in critical swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.
While Hogan’s candidacy may prompt the Democratic Party to divert resources to defend Maryland, the focus should remain on strategically competitive Senate races. It is crucial for the NRSC to prioritize states where the partisan lean presents genuine opportunities for success, rather than pursuing a long-shot campaign in Maryland. Ultimately, ensuring a strong presence in the competitive swing states will be key in the campaign to reclaim control of the Senate.
