Staff Reports
In the final stretch leading up to the 2024 election, House seats are not just changing hands; they’re shifting like a game of musical chairs, only this time, the stakes are higher than those who get stuck without a seat. Five competitive House races have caught the attention of political analysts, and it seems both parties are making tactical shifts, with Democrats squeaking ahead in three races. In contrast, Republicans manage to tighten the grip on two others. This maneuvering comes as the GOP hunts to grow its slim majority in the House, hoping to turn the tide in their favor come November.
Attention is being drawn to the contest in Alaska, where Mary Peltola, the Democrat-in-chief of some sort, has the gall to cling to a seat she snagged after 50 years without a Democrat at the wheel. Just recently, her race has been downgraded from “leans Democratic” to a nail-biting “toss-up.” Facing challenger Nick Begich, along with a few also-rans, Peltola is entering a world of hurt. This time around, Republicans are circling the wagons around Begich in a manner they failed to do last midterm. With Sweetheart Trump throwing his weight behind Begich after the Republican Party’s collapse of support for Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom, it seems the first-time Democrat might just be finding her 50% primary win more of a liability this go around.
Five House races shift as general election grows closer https://t.co/qvkLdtvfBh via @dcexaminer
— Fearless45 (@Fearless45Trump) September 19, 2024
Further south, Representative Mike Lawler in New York has shifted from a Democratic-leaning “toss-up” to a gentle “leans Republican.” This change comes on the coattails of Trump’s recent campaign rally meant to rejuvenate support in a state that slowly began to turn into a pale blue paradise. Lawler’s seat might have gone for Biden by 10 points in 2020, but as they say, who can ignore a crowd at a Trump rally? In an ironic twist, the same state that raised the SALT cap is now subjected to drama as Trump tries hard to coax it back into the red.
California is also in the mix, with Michelle Steel’s race sliding from “leans Republican” into the risky waters of “toss-up.” Democrats highlight her opponent Derek Tran’s Vietnamese American heritage, assuming that will sway votes. Steel, however, isn’t about to let some trial lawyer’s image kite-fly without having her say. The race has been tightening like a pair of too-small pants, and if Tran is not careful, he might find himself on the receiving end of a few pointed jabs regarding his past clients.
Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, Derrick Van Orden faces rising pressure as his seat shifts from the cozy “likely Republican” to the more precarious “leans Republican.” This would-be gladiator is now looking eye-to-eye with Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke, who, according to one poll, has forsaken the predicted status quo to lead by a nose at 49%. Yet the district, which carries a +5 Trump advantage, hints at Cooke’s uphill slip n’ slide for winning the day.
Finally, there’s the once-coveted California seat left vacant by Rep. Katie Porter, who apparently lost track of where she was going after making her Senate bid, only to see Adam Schiff rise like a phoenix from the ashes of a Democratic stronghold. Now, with the Democrats aiming to hold onto a district Biden won by 11 points, Republican Scott Baugh is gearing up for a rematch after falling short to Porter in 2022. As the race in this historically blue territory gets designated as “leans Democratic,” the question remains: can Baugh rally enough support to surprise?
With the control of the House hanging perilously on these races, it would be wise for everyone to keep their politician-proof seatbelts fastened. The political landscape is shifting faster than a New York minute, with both parties seeking to carve out their territory in what could end up being a wild swing year. Stay tuned as the drama unfolds in California and New York, where the fight will truly be one for the ages.
