Staff Reports
The latest presidential debate showcased the ongoing struggle of Vice President Kamala Harris, revealing a rather unimpressive performance against former President Donald Trump. Despite the enthusiastic claims from the mainstream media that Harris had garnered a significant bump in support post-debate, the data coming from Politico paints a different picture entirely. The overall consensus among polling experts indicates that Harris’s lead barely budged, nearly falling into the realm of irrelevance.
According to Politico’s analysis, Harris saw a minuscule increase in her national poll numbers, growing her lead by around 1 percentage point since the debate. While some sources like NBC News and CBS News reported favorable results for Harris, her overall standing remained wobbling and precarious across various battleground states. A dive into the numbers reveals that Harris has solidified an average lead of just over 1 point in only two of these crucial states, while the others show such tight margins that one could easily conclude the race is tighter than a drum.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: NYT/@SienaResearch
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 50% (+5)
🟦 Harris: 45%Last poll (8/15) – 🔵 Harris +5
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NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 47%Last poll – 🔵 Harris +2
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GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+4)
🟦 Harris: 45%Last poll – 🔴 Trump +4
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#1 (3.0/3.0) |… pic.twitter.com/oItjnaKpFJ— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 23, 2024
Adding to the humor of the situation, numerous polls in the aftermath of the debate seemed to favor Trump by a considerable margin. For instance, one poll from Siena and the New York Times flipped the narrative, demonstrating that Trump and Harris were neck and neck nationally. Meanwhile, Emerson’s survey showcased Trump firmly leading in key battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with him tying in others like Arizona. Those trying to promote the Harris “bounce” must be scratching their heads over these numbers.
Rasmussen Reports added to the fun, revealing that Trump led Harris by a point nationally, while Cygnal’s poll showed a narrow one-point advantage for Trump in North Carolina. This flurry of data inadvertently highlights a crucial reality: the electoral landscape continues to favor Trump, and Harris’s so-called strength appears to exist primarily in the minds of those desperate for a Democratic win, not in tangible support on the ground.
The narrative only grows more complicated as analysts speculate how the chaos ensuing from Trump’s second assassination attempt might play a role in upcoming polling. This incident could very well swing favor back to Trump as his base consolidates support in the face of adversity. Ultimately, the numbers suggest that Kamala’s road to the White House may be paved with formidable obstacles as Trump continues to demonstrate strength where it counts, such as by leading in states crucial for the Electoral College.
The polling data shows Trump has a solid path to victory, highlighting that Harris faces a mountain to climb in November. It is pretty evident from the recent polling that Trump does not require the traditionally blue states of Michigan or Nevada to secure a victory, as he is set up to potentially win in states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The amusing irony is that while establishment media promise a Democratic resurgence, the numbers indicate quite the opposite, leaving the apparent odds stacked decisively in Trump’s favor.
