Staff Reports
Vice President Kamala Harris, who recently claimed the title of presumptive Democratic nominee, has failed to make the splash most Democrats envisioned. Instead of soaring in the polls after her nomination, Harris has been stuck in the quagmire, unable to eclipse former President Donald Trump. The highly anticipated bump from her elevation in the race, touted by the Democratic Party and their media allies, seems more like a fizzle than a rise.
Recent surveys paint a concerning picture for the Democrats, showing Trump in the lead in both national and battleground states. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted over three nights, reveals that Trump is ahead of Harris by a solid 7 points among likely voters, coming in at 50% to her 43%. This gap is well beyond the margin of error, suggesting that support for Harris isn’t merely tepid; it might even be cooling off as her campaign gains momentum—or lack thereof.
Trump keeps battleground state lead despite campaign fears.
However, @EmersonPolling @thehill survey shows good growth for VP Harris among younger voters.https://t.co/TrXzlDGNNc via @dcexaminer pic.twitter.com/5VDkjucaYJ
— Paul Bedard (@SecretsBedard) July 25, 2024
Harris’s only gain appears to come in the form of a marginal increase in support from Democratic voters since Joe Biden exited the presidential stage amidst mounting pressure. While she managed to pick up a single point since Biden’s departure, the enthusiasm for her candidacy is lackluster at best. Independent voters have decidedly opted for Trump, handing him a staggering 20-point lead in their segment, 53% to 33%. That’s more than a mere endorsement; it spells out a clear shift in sentiment, likely leaving Democratic strategists scratching their heads and closely analyzing their options.
Trump’s appeal remains broad, cutting across demographic lines to maintain support from black, Hispanic, and younger voters. The electorate appears to appreciate Trump’s policies and straightforward approach to governance more than the status quo that Harris represents. While some polls, including a recent Emerson College/Hill survey, suggested a budding interest among younger voters for Harris, they have not convinced the wider youth demographic to abandon Trump, who continues to attract substantial interest from this group.
Even when the notion of third-party candidates enters the mix, Trump continues to lead Harris by 7 points, demonstrating that the former president’s base remains solid. In the Rasmussen poll featuring such candidates, Trump stands at 49% compared to Harris’s 42%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. seeing his support cut in half from 8% to a mere 4%. The data suggests that Harris’s campaign might need to recalibrate and rethink its strategies in order to kindle any flicker of excitement among the electorate, lest they find themselves stuck in the political mud while Trump sails ahead.
