Staff Reports
Stanley Druckenmiller, a big name in the world of hedge funds and market predictions, has recently made waves by suggesting that Donald Trump is on a trajectory not unlike Ronald Reagan’s during his landslide win in 1980. It seems Druckenmiller, who has had his fair share of successes and misfires in the political sphere, believes that the conditions are aligning favorably for Trump’s return to the White House.
In an interview that could be labeled a “not-so-shocking revelation,” Druckenmiller shared that the market trends—those mystical indicators that politicians love to overlook—are signaling a strong likelihood of a Trump victory. Twelve days prior, he could only muster a “no clue” when asked about the upcoming election, but something clearly changed, leading him to conclude that bank stocks, cryptocurrency, and even the rapidly growing social media platform Truth Social, are all hinting that Trump might be the favorite this time around. It’s almost as if the financial market can smell victory, which bodes well for the Republican base.
Based on what I am seeing in the markets, a Trump victory is now being priced in. I suspect a roaring economy next year, lower inflation, and peace. pic.twitter.com/nGhr7W6m3Z
— James Clayton (@offgridmeta) October 14, 2024
Druckenmiller has a history of backing moderate Republican candidates who have yet to leave a lasting impression on the national stage. Names like Chris Christie and Jeb Bush come to mind—candidates whose sighs of relief could dwarf the sounds of crickets when reflecting on their last campaign. This time, though, he’s made it explicit that he’s not throwing any support behind Trump or Harris, because let’s face it, both options may not be his ideal. Still, he can’t ignore what the numbers are suggesting, and he’s not shy to admit it.
Political betting markets are also aligning with Druckenmiller’s sentiments, suggesting a two-to-one split in favor of Trump over Harris, like a Vegas betting line that suggests putting cash on the horse that hasn’t stumbled yet. Fox News has added more fuel to the fire with a poll showing Trump with a slim but telling lead of 2% over the current Vice President, which is a four-point turnaround from just a month ago. Meanwhile, polling guru Nate Silver is moving critical swing states into Trump’s corner, even identifying Arizona and Pennsylvania as places where the former president could clinch a strong victory.
On the other hand, Kamala Harris appears to be sweating bullets. She recently had an uncomfortable chat with Fox News, during which she was confronted about her inconsistent stance on immigration. Instead of offering clarity, she dodged questions about her past support for some rather controversial policies, including publicly-funded gender reassignment surgeries for inmates. When asked, she resorted to the old, “It’s Trump’s fault!” tactic, indicating that she may be feeling the pressure as her approval ratings continue to sink. As Harris scrambles to maintain her composure, Trump supporters can certainly savor the show.
