Staff Reports
House Republicans are facing a tough decision as they choose a nominee for Speaker of the House. This brings back memories of the embarrassing 15-round floor fight that occurred in January. After Tuesday’s vote, Republicans recessed the House and plan to meet next week to discuss the candidates. The timeline for this process seems highly ambitious, but Republicans are eager to move forward with the selection.
Five Questions Washington Wants Answered in the Race for Speaker of the House https://t.co/OA2PPvMNbP
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One of the key differences between this race and the one in January is the lack of a clear frontrunner. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy had overwhelming support, but this time around, candidates like Rep. Steve Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan each bring their own bloc of support. With more candidates expected to join the race, it’s unlikely that any candidate will receive majority support on the first ballot. This could result in multiple rounds of voting and candidates withdrawing from the race.
The divisions within the Republican conference, particularly between conservative hardliners and the establishment bloc, are still present. Achieving unity within the conference may prove to be more challenging now than it was nine months ago. However, the advantage for Republicans is that they can work out their differences behind closed doors. It would be a nightmare scenario for them if this battle played out publicly, especially considering they want to avoid another embarrassing situation like the one in January.
Time is of the essence for Republicans, as they must fund the government by November 17 and consider the 12 appropriations bills. The longer this selection process takes, the more difficult it will be for Republicans to meet these deadlines. While Republican leaders will do their best to ensure the race concludes definitively before going to the House floor, given the state of the race and the heated atmosphere within the conference, it could take weeks before a candidate is chosen.
One of the crucial aspects of this race is whether the holdouts within the conference will agree to back the winner on the floor. In January, there were several members who voted for other candidates even after McCarthy was nominated, and it took some persuasion for them to support him. Personal grudges and policy differences could prevent members from fully backing the conference’s choice. It is paramount for Republicans to resolve these issues internally to avoid any surprises during the floor vote.
The million-dollar question in this race is who can win in such a divided conference. Both Scalise and Jordan face challenges in getting the necessary 218 votes. Scalise’s bad blood with McCarthy and concerns about his health could hamper his candidacy. Jordan, on the other hand, is opposed by some moderates who have disliked him since his days as a thorn in Speaker John Boehner’s side. Other potential candidates have their own baggage and hurdles to overcome, making the race unpredictable.
As for former President Donald Trump, he is open to serving as Speaker for a short-term period, but the likelihood of that happening is slim. However, a Trump endorsement of another candidate could significantly impact the race. While it’s always risky to predict Trump’s actions, as the leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination and the de facto leader of the party, he has the power to shift the dynamics of the race if he chooses to do so.
Overall, the race for Speaker of the House is full of uncertainties and challenges for House Republicans. Finding a consensus candidate who can bring the conference together and lead effectively will be crucial for the party’s success.
