Staff Reports
The Democratic Party might be dousing themselves in bubbly a bit too early as they get giddy about Vice President Kamala Harris possibly leading the charge against former President Donald Trump. According to Harry Enten from CNN, this enthusiasm could be misplaced, even more so than Biden’s approval ratings after a long weekend barbecue.
Enten highlights the uphill battle ahead for Harris as she tries to take down Trump and provides a candid look at her polling numbers, which aren’t exactly soaring. In fact, they sit snugly near her boss’s dismal figures. The Democratic establishment seems to have collectively realized that Biden is about as popular as a used car from a shady dealer in a bad area, hence their abrupt decision to put Harris forward. Perhaps they are hoping for a miracle akin to winning the lotto.
When it comes to Trump, he has somehow managed to wriggle his way into the hearts of more folks than ever, and he’s doing it while navigating personal chaos that would make a soap opera look tame. Recent stats from ABC/Ipsos and Quinnipiac show him enjoying the highest approval ratings of his career. It’s almost as if Trump’s supporters view him as a political superhero, and it seems that a nearly-assassinated Trump has only strengthened their resolve.
CNN's Harry Enten: Blue States Like "New York, Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire" Could Be "In Play" In Biden-Trump Electionhttps://t.co/Ggk3obxLzD
"States that Joe Biden easily carried last time, now all of a sudden, the Trump campaign thinks they can put them in play." pic.twitter.com/iSkK6WCyXo
— RCP Video (@rcpvideo) July 11, 2024
Then there’s the matter of Harris’s polling against Trump. While she may outperform Biden slightly, that’s akin to saying her swimming skills are better than a brick’s. Trump leads her by a smidge, which isn’t exactly screaming victory in the upcoming race. The close race essentially means, just like any good political establishment, that it’s too close to call, but isn’t that where the real drama kicks in?
Enten’s calculations reveal the stark reality: in past contests, Democrats have historically fared better in the popular vote than in the Electoral College. He elaborates on how Biden managed to sneak through with just a smidge of luck, winning the popular vote by a solid four points while scraping by in the Electoral College. Currently, Trump is doing five points better than his previous run, which should have Democratic strategists reaching for their calculators. Harris will need to definitely outperform her national showing if she plans on claiming victory in the Electoral College and not simply hope for a tie that even her most dedicated fans would know isn’t enough against the Trump juggernaut.
Polling from before and after Biden essentially packed up his presidential dreams this past weekend further emphasizes the uphill battle awaiting Harris. In the latest surveys, Trump is emerging ahead by up to 10%, meaning Democrats might not just be celebrating prematurely but might need to start cracking open their wallets for 2028 instead.
