Staff ReportsKamala Harris’s campaign is facing a serious crisis, and new polling data reveals why. Polls from key swing states point to a significant shift in voter sentiment, with former President Donald Trump gaining traction while Harris’s numbers plummet. In Michigan, a recent survey indicated Trump leading by three points—an eight-point swing from the previous month when Harris was ahead by five. Similarly, Wisconsin showed a similar trend, with Trump now leading by two points after previously trailing by one. Even in Pennsylvania, where Harris has heavily invested in advertising, her lead has shrunk from six points to just three, indicating a worrying pattern for Democrats.
This downward trend for Harris isn’t just a fluke; it reflects broader issues within her campaign. As political analysts note, there is a palpable sense of déjà vu among Harris’s allies, reminiscent of the anxiety surrounding Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016. Back then, Clinton enjoyed a more substantial lead in the polls at this point, yet it ultimately led to a surprise loss. Current reports suggest that Harris’s campaign staff is growing increasingly uneasy as they recognize the similar polling indicators—suggesting that a reversal of fortune could be on the horizon for the Vice President.
Some political observers have pointed out that Trump’s support among low and mid-propensity voters may be underestimated. Traditional polling methods often fail to capture this demographic, as those who typically don’t vote or engage in polls tend to shy away from expressing their preferences. However, the data indicates that Trump holds a solid lead among this group. On the other hand, Harris leads among high-propensity voters, but this situation could spell trouble for her campaign as these are not the only voters who will matter in November.
Compounding Harris’s difficulties is her struggle to energize minority voters, particularly in critical battleground states. The decline in voter turnout among black voters in Wisconsin is a worrying sign for her campaign. Between 2012 and 2020, turnout dropped significantly, a trend that could prove detrimental as the campaign heads into 2024. Unlike Obama in 2012, who galvanized a high turnout amongst black voters, the current enthusiasm for Harris appears waning. The question arises: Can she galvanize the same level of excitement among this crucial demographic? The signs do not suggest a favorable outcome, as both Hispanic and black voters show signs of discontent.
As the elections approach, Harris’s struggles may serve as a crucial reality check for the Democrats. If polling continues to trend unfavorable and voter turnout among key demographics fails to materialize, Harris may find herself in an uphill battle against a resurgent Trump campaign. Her success hinges on her ability to rally support from both traditional party strongholds and those who have felt overlooked in recent elections. The clock is ticking, and unless profound changes occur in her campaign strategy, she may be facing an uphill struggle that even the best polling cannot mask.
