Staff Reports
In the latest episode of “Will She or Won’t She?” concerning Kamala Harris, the vice president appears to be clinging to a mere 1.8-point lead according to the RealClearPolitics national average. While Democrats are probably throwing confetti as if they just won the Super Bowl, they should take a moment to assess their enthusiasm. Harris is trailing significantly behind the numbers posted by Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton at the same stages in the preceding elections. It’s a fine line between confidence and delusion, and Democrats seem to be tipping well into the latter.
Enter Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, who decided to drop his latest forecast as if it were a GOP holiday gift. In August, Trump was looking pretty spry with a 53.1% chance of claiming the Electoral College, and Harris was left picking up crumbs at 46.6%. The real standout news? Trump hasn’t just held onto his lead; he’s fortified it in crucial swing states. In the most important swing state, Pennsylvania, Trump now boasts a 57-43% advantage. When in history has it ever been wise to count out a sitting president with such a grip on key battlegrounds?
Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (9/3)
Chance of winning
🟥 Trump: 56.7% (highest since 7/31)
🟦 Harris: 43.0%
——
Swing States: chance of winningPennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 57-43%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 64-36%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 67-33%
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 70-30%
Nevada – 🔴… https://t.co/QZjx9HVZ5n pic.twitter.com/p2hIdVZ2Gt— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 3, 2024
Silver’s most recent forecast ramps up Trump’s chances to an impressive 56.7%—his highest since the end of July. Meanwhile, Harris’s prospects take a nosedive to 43.0%. It’s like watching a flag sink in slow motion. Trump not only has solidified his standing in Pennsylvania, but he has also overpowered Harris in states like Georgia (64-36%), Arizona (67-33%), and North Carolina (70-30%). The urban legend about Harris’s numbers being strong in Michigan and Wisconsin is just that, a legend. Even there, she’s barely cracking half a point above Trump.
One can’t ignore the elephant in the room: Silver has decided to remove polling from ActiVote due to their recent data showing an upward trend for Trump. This begs the question—why the apparent urgency to keep morale high on the left? Silver mentions a potential “convention bounce,” but let’s face it, Harris’s bounce has been more of a sad little hop compared to the leaps one would expect from a candidate on the verge of greatness.
It’s factual that Harris holds a slight lead in national averages, but averages are just that—averages. They’re like a lopsided seesaw that can shift at any moment. Trump being characterized as the current favorite to win, especially in light of Silver’s previously Democrat-friendly projections, should send shivers down the spines of the Democratic establishment. Moreover, with RFK Jr.’s surprising endorsement of Trump, Harris’s dwindling chances only falter further. The upcoming debate? Well, it just might be the perfect storm for more shockwaves in the election forecast. It’s shaping up to be the kind of race where the only real winner might be the audience.
