Staff Reports
Senator Joe Manchin III, the Democrat from West Virginia, may be facing an uphill battle to retain his seat in the Senate. Despite being one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats in 2024, Republicans are unsure if they will be able to oust him. In the 2018 election, Manchin narrowly won re-election, and former President Donald Trump won the state of West Virginia by nearly 40 points in 2020. This puts Manchin at odds with both the White House and his own party, as he positions himself as an independent voice.
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Even within the Democratic Party in West Virginia, Manchin is seen as too conservative by some. However, many Democrats understand that his moderate stance gives him the best chance of winning in a state that has turned bright red. As long as most Democrats believe he is their best option, they will continue to support him. This gives Manchin the freedom to try and sway moderate Republicans to his side.
Manchin’s narrow victory in Jefferson County in 2018 mirrored his statewide win. This year, his seat could determine which party controls the Senate. With Democrats holding a one-seat majority, Republicans only need to gain one or two seats to take control. Manchin has said he will make a decision on whether to seek re-election later this year. In the meantime, he flirts with the idea of a third-party presidential run and vows to fight against President Biden’s tax and climate law. Manchin’s criticism of his own party and his uncertain political future have made him a key figure in the spotlight.
Despite his disagreements with the Democratic Party, some Republicans in West Virginia are open to supporting Manchin if he were to leave the party and run as an independent. This demonstrates the appeal that Manchin has across party lines. However, there are also those within the Democratic Party who believe he is too conservative but recognize that he is their only hope for keeping the seat blue. It remains to be seen whether Manchin will decide to run for re-election, but his substantial fundraising efforts indicate that he is serious about the possibility.
The forthcoming race for Manchin’s seat is likely to be influenced by the ongoing criminal cases against former President Trump. This could give a boost to Republican candidates in West Virginia, as seen in the increased national support for Trump in the Republican primary. Republicans believe that the justice system has been weaponized against their party, leading to a backlash against the current administration.
West Virginia Governor Jim Justice, the leading Republican candidate for Senate, sees Manchin as a formidable challenger. However, Manchin’s approval rating is low, and hypothetical matchups show him losing to Justice. From Justice’s perspective, Manchin may be looking for a way to secure his political future without running against him. He suggests that Manchin wants to run for president as an independent and then pursue other opportunities in the media and publishing industries.
Regardless of his future plans, Manchin’s independent-minded approach and ability to fundraise give him a strong position in the race. While his critics question his conservative leanings and understanding of issues such as climate change, they also recognize that Manchin has taken political risks and remains true to his beliefs. Ultimately, the outcome of the election may come down to whether the Republican nominee can earn the voters’ trust and present a credible alternative to Manchin.
