Staff Reports
A recent poll reveals turbulent waters ahead for Vice President Kamala Harris as she grapples with an uphill battle in Pennsylvania’s bellwether counties, Erie and Northampton. With Election Day looming, former President Donald Trump is not just leading; he’s inching back into the hearts of voters in these crucial areas — a reversal from 2020 that could shake things up in a state vital for Democratic aspirations.
The Cygnal poll, conducted from the end of September, shows Trump at 49% with Harris trailing just behind at 48% among likely voters in the general election. Although this lead may seem slight, it holds significant implications for Harris’s campaign. These counties, which once backed Trump in 2016 before taking a sharp left turn for Biden in 2020, appear to be swinging back toward the GOP. It seems the voters’ worries over the economy and immigration have brought them back to the side of the former president, who they believe may actually have solutions to their problems.
JUST IN: Poll Of Bellwether Counties Dooms Kamala's Chances In Must-Win State https://t.co/3Hu4ZyjQWA
— Elena (@helen44767171) October 8, 2024
Additional insights from the poll illustrate a growing sentiment among voters that Trump’s policies resonate more positively with their lives. A 49%-46% margin indicates that the electorate believes Trump will serve their interests more effectively. Interestingly, while Trump’s favorability rating rests at a relatively mild -4, Harris finds herself deeper underwater at -8. Among men under 55, Trump’s advantage is even more striking, with a hefty 24-point lead. On the other hand, Harris suffers from a net unfavorable rating of 36 points within that demographic, proving she might want to rethink her approach to appealing to younger voters — or, you know, voters in general.
Voter perception of the Democratic Party itself appears to be another nail in Harris’s coffin. The poll highlights a dismal -13 net rating for Democrats in these counties compared to Republicans at a more manageable -4. Despite their advantage in voter registration, it’s clear that many long-time Democrats have found themselves disillusioned, opting to side with the red team instead.
Adding insult to injury, speculation is swirling over Harris’s choice of running mate. Many in the Democratic circle are scratching their heads over her selection of Tim Walz instead of Pennsylvania’s own Governor Josh Shapiro. Shapiro, who carries notable local popularity, could have potentially given Harris a slight edge in these battleground areas. Some Democrats lament that a Harris-Shapiro ticket might have created a closer race, possibly tipping the scales to a narrow victory against Trump.
Dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration’s direction is palpable, with a staggering 64% of respondents believing the country is on the wrong track. Meanwhile, Trump is effectively portraying himself as the working-class champion, resonating in historically industrial regions. Among union households, he maintains a robust 16-point lead. Moreover, voters making under $100,000 — a critical demographic in Pennsylvania — show strong support for Trump, who appears to be taking the reins away from a party that once dominated blue-collar circles.
The poll underscores that key issues such as inflation, illegal immigration, and the economy are leading the charge in voter sentiment. When it comes to immigration and border security, Trump leads Harris by a healthy 15 points. Additionally, there is widespread skepticism regarding Harris’s stance on fracking, with half of voters backing the practice and only a fraction believing her recent change of heart is sincere. Trump is capitalizing on her struggle to project authenticity, a crucial element in today’s political landscape.
As the clock ticks down, the challenge Harris faces in these bellwether counties is steep. Trump, however, has a clear path forward: continue hammering home issues that strike a chord with working-class voters, while painting Harris as out of touch with the very concerns that keep these voters awake at night. If these patterns persist, Trump’s return to form in Pennsylvania could spell additional trouble for Harris’s presidential ambitions.
