Staff ReportsJ. Ann Selzer is hanging up her polling hat, and not a moment too soon, especially after her most recent disaster just before the 2024 presidential election. Known for her work with the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, Selzer’s latest foray into predictive stats has left many chuckling, not just at the inaccuracies but also at the timing of her exit — just like her poll, it’s a timing that’s hard to ignore.
Her big revelation came out just days before the election, and what did it show? According to Selzer’s poll, President-elect Donald Trump was supposedly trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by three percentage points in Iowa. For those who’ve been living under a rock, that’s the same Iowa that Trump triumphed in during both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Skepticism about the poll was immediate and well-deserved. After all, if there’s one universal truth in political polling, it’s that many predictions can be as reliable as a weather report in a hurricane.
Disgraced pollster retires after massive misfire on election predictions. pic.twitter.com/1HKzXF4DTo
— Robert Gouveia Esq. (@RobGouveiaEsq) November 20, 2024
Instead of meaningful insights, Selzer’s work provided comedic fodder that had many rolling their eyes and shaking their heads. The result, as history would have it, was a resounding slap in the face to those outlandish figures. Trump didn’t just win Iowa; he crushed it, claiming a solid victory by a whopping 13 percentage points. If that was a horse race, it wouldn’t just be a photo finish; it’d be an episode of “Fast and Furious.”
Criticism began pouring in faster than leftist tears at a Republican victory party. It sparked a debate: was Selzer merely incompetent, or was this a case of polling on steroids, designed to manipulate perceptions? Given her abrupt departure from the polling world, one can only wonder what her next adventure might look like. Isn’t it fitting that her exit from political polling coincides with one of its biggest flops?
Selzer’s announcement of turning her back on political polling was laced with a touch of irony. Citing a transition to “other ventures,” she seems to be searching for something—anything—that might salvage her tarnished reputation. Maybe a career in irony-making? Perhaps a comedy club where she can spin tales, so far removed from reality they could rival her polling numbers. Whatever the case, it seems clear that the world of election forecasting will be a bit brighter (and more accurate) without Selzer’s contributions.
