Staff Reports
With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropping out of the presidential race and extending an endorsement to former President Donald Trump, Republicans were gearing up for a boost in the polls that would finally signal the resurgence of their chosen candidate. On the other side of the aisle, Democrats were hoping that their national convention would serve as the shot in the arm needed for Vice President Kamala Harris. But a recent poll shows that all these fireworks didn’t quite light up the skies as anticipated.
According to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, the race stands at a near tie: 50% for Harris and 46% for Trump, a shift that’s barely moved the needle from the previous tally of 50%-45%. Among likely voters, Trump now holds a narrow 52%-46% edge. It seems the hot air balloon of Democratic optimism inflated at the convention didn’t manage to carry the Harris campaign very far off the ground.
RFK Jr drop-out, DNC shows minimal effect on tight polling for Harris and Trump https://t.co/FL1diwWImj
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) September 2, 2024
The DNC was packed with big names and star power, showcasing passionate speeches from political heavyweights like Barack and Michelle Obama, as well as Oprah Winfrey making a surprise guest appearance. It was the kind of spectacle that could only be rivaled by a week of high-energy college football games. Despite all the star-studded drama, when it came to voter sentiment, it appears that any excitement generated in the hall fell flat in the real world. The race remains as tight as ever, with Harris’s support stagnating since she took center stage.
Interestingly, the ABC poll highlighted a shifting gender divide, with Harris gaining ground among women. She improved her numbers from 51%-45% to 54%-41%. However, Trump is making seismic gains among men, flipping a pre-convention deficit into a 51%-46% lead. It’s almost as if the more the Democrats cheer for Harris, the more the guys are saying no thanks in favor of Trump.
Republicans embraced RFK Jr.’s endorsement like a long-lost family member showing up at a Thanksgiving dinner. He even shared the stage at a Trump rally moments after his announcement. But even with this potential windfall, the polls showed that third-party enthusiasm hadn’t budged much—78% of voters claimed Kennedy dropping out wouldn’t sway their final decision. On top of that, a mere 79% of Republicans rated Trump’s campaign positively, compared to 93% of Democrats cheering for Harris. In the end, it looks like fear may be playing a role in the race: a surprising 75% of Harris supporters think that a Trump victory would usher in a major crisis, while 67% of Trump supporters feel the same way about Harris. If nothing else, this campaign is turning into a real nail-biter.
