Staff Reports
NATO has been grappling with a sharp increase in Russian airspace violations throughout 2024 and 2025, with an intensity spike in recent weeks signaling a serious challenge to the alliance’s unity and readiness. Incursions have involved Russian drones, reconnaissance aircraft, and Jet fighters buzzing NATO airspace—from Poland and Estonia to Romania, Germany, and the Baltic states. These actions clearly demonstrate Moscow’s probing strategy to test NATO’s responsiveness and political will, while trying to divert attention from its ongoing brutal war against Ukraine.
The most concerning recent incidents include the September 9th engagement of 19 Russian drones in Polish airspace, the violation of Estonian airspace by three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets for 12 minutes on September 19th, and several incursions near the Baltic Sea where Germany scrambled Eurofighter jets to intercept Russian reconnaissance planes. Even NATO military bases like Denmark’s air force hubs have reported close drone encounters, showing a pattern of aggression designed to unsettle the alliance. These maneuvers are not just annoying—they risk misjudgment and escalation in a highly tense security environment.
President Donald Trump has rightly urged a firmer stance, calling for NATO countries to shoot down Russian aircraft violating their airspace rather than tolerating these breaches. The idea of a “drone wall” defense system has also been floated by security officials, though the high costs and operational challenges—especially with some drones launching from within allied territories—make this a complex endeavor. Still, caution should not turn into timidity, as Russia’s repeated incursions are calculated tests meant to expose NATO’s weaknesses.
NATO’s current approach, which emphasizes consultation and restraint among member states like Poland and Estonia, reflects a desire to avoid open conflict but also risks emboldening the Kremlin. Without a visible and consistent show of strength and readiness to defend member sovereignty decisively—up to and including the use of force—the alliance risks messaging vulnerability. This is precisely what Russia seeks as it attempts to weaken transatlantic solidarity and limit Western support for Ukraine.
The stakes could not be higher as we face aggressive and unrelenting violations of NATO’s airspace by Moscow. The alliance must act with clear resolve and unity to deter further provocations and signal that any breach of sovereignty will be met with immediate and decisive consequences. Failure to do so risks inviting more dangerous escalations that could threaten the fragile peace in Europe and test the foundations of collective security that NATO was built upon.
