Staff Reports
Pennsylvania is again gearing up to be a battleground as Election Day approaches, and it appears that more voters are leaning toward former President Donald Trump than Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a recent Monmouth University poll. Just days before ballots are cast, Trump and Harris are tied at 42% each among registered voters, with an additional 5% of the populace still deciding who to support. This tight race demonstrates Trump’s staying power in a crucial swing state that helped propel him to the presidency before.
Harris's challenge lies in energizing her base of high-propensity, primarily educated white voters, particularly in the university-leaning enclaves. Meanwhile, the former president is counting on his ability to rally less frequent voters, historically those disenchanted by politics as usual. With a whopping 60% of white voters without college degrees pledging their support to Trump, it’s clear where the genuine grassroots enthusiasm lies—smack dab in “Trump country,” where he dominates the western and central parts of the state.
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— rightnews2023 (@rightnews2023) October 30, 2024
In contrast, Harris does have her strongholds, particularly in the southeastern corner of Pennsylvania, where urban centers like Philadelphia give her a slight edge. Nonetheless, her lead in this region has shrunk from Biden’s 66% in 2020 to 58% currently. This remains a significant drop, considering that this area accounts for about one-third of the state’s total votes. If Trump can rally the rural and swing county voters while holding firm in his core areas, he may well turn the tables and reclaim Pennsylvania.
The statistics regarding voter consistency are revealing as well. Although Harris slightly edges out in overall 2022 midterm voter support, Trump’s performance among the less reliable voters proves he still has a path forward. His ability to reach voters who have flip-flopped in their choices, coupled with the undercurrents of discontent towards the current administration, positions him to potentially exploit the weakness in Harris’s support leading up to the elections.
Both candidates face increasing negativity in perceptions among voters who have firmly ruled them out. Trump’s unfavored index has increased from 46% to 49%, while Harris’s disapproval has increased from 44% to 50%. This reflects a fracturing electorate; they are exhausted by the constant political bickering and may just want a trustworthy candidate who doesn’t embody the “establishment.” If Trump can galvanize his base and tap into the frustration of these often-overlooked voters, November could have a few surprises in store.
With the Monmouth poll underscoring the precarious balance in voter sentiment, both campaigns are expected to make feverish final pushes across Pennsylvania, knowing that the 19 electoral votes could determine the nation's fate. It remains to be seen who can better command the divided votes in this crucial battleground, but one thing’s for sure: the stakes couldn’t be higher.
