Staff Reports
Former President Donald Trump is dominating the GOP primary polls and it’s no surprise. Despite being targeted by one unjust indictment after another, Trump’s leadership and strong presence stand above the crowd. His competition includes nearly 100 candidates, none of whom have ever been a former president with the ability to command a room.
The runner up in the primary race is the highly capable Republican Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis. Although recent surveys have shown that the lead of the former president over his adversary is growing, his team reveals he also maintains a strong lead in a general election race against Joe Biden. This trumpeting is not meant for a coronation but rather to reflect the inevitable victory that lies ahead. The goal here is simple- encouraging everyone to rally behind Trump and not be distracted by other candidates by recognizing his ability to beat DeSantis and ultimately take on Biden.
There has been some evidence to suggest a core flaw with polling. Specifically, polls that claim Biden has only 53% of the black vote, or that Trump is winning women and GenZ, might be subject to some issues. One such polling outfit, Harvard Harris, seems to demonstrate that Trump has an unbeatable lead in the GOP primary and is surprisingly competitive in a general election.
However, one needs to look beyond the surface numbers and focus on the crosstabs and demographic sampling to deduce the reliability of these surveys. For example, if no previous Republican has ever won the women’s vote in decades, how can we believe that Donald Trump can succeed in breaking such a cycle?
The truth is, Trump’s unbridled success in the GOP primaries might not be insurmountable, and he may not be competitive against Joe Biden, taking into account the consistent behavior of voters throughout history. Therefore, it’s fair to say that this polling data should be taken with an enormous grain of salt.
🚨 NATIONAL POLL: Harvard/Harris
PRES:
(R) Trump: 45% (+6)
(D) Biden: 39%(R) DeSantis: 41% (+1)
(D) Biden: 40%
.
GOP PRES:
• Trump — 59% (+45)
• DeSantis — 14%
• Pence — 8%
• Haley — 4%
• Ramaswamy — 3%
• Scott — 2%
• Christie — 2%Harris (B) | 06/14-15 | 2,090 RV pic.twitter.com/z8Qo4HLowH
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 16, 2023
Source: Townhall
