Staff Reports
Former President Donald Trump is gearing up to accept the Republican nomination for a third presidential run. Yet, for the past two weeks, all eyes have been on President Joe Biden, especially after a shocking assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania. The Democrats have been giving Biden more headaches than ever, particularly following his debacle of a debate performance.
Biden will be a focal point at the Republican National Convention, but he’s not the only reason Democrats are fretting. The real star in Milwaukee, and the root of Biden’s issues, is none other than Trump. The Biden campaign has been flailing about, insisting the race is tight, allegedly based on their internal polling. Public polls echo this claim, showing Trump edging Biden by mere points. For example, Fox News and NBC News polls have Trump leading narrowly, while NPR/PBS/Marist briefly showed Biden ahead by 2 points before Democratic lawmakers started screaming he should bow out.
Not just the RNC: Trump casts a shadow over the Democrats, too https://t.co/Uv1lfIgXAQ via @dcexaminer
— Fearless45 (@Fearless45Trump) July 15, 2024
RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump leading nationally by 2.7 points, which is a slight dip from his post-debate peak. Trump remains a polarizing figure with an underwater favorability rating of 12.6 points—better than Biden’s, enough to keep the race stiff.
The Democrats have never been keen on admitting a close race, and their patience snapped after Biden’s disastrous debate outing. Losing to Trump remains unthinkable for them. Many on the left regarded Trump as politically dead after his 2020 loss or post-Jan. 6, but Milwaukee is set to prove them wrong once more.
Democrats love to declare Trump an existential threat to democracy. Such claims might be simmering down slightly after an assassin’s bullet nearly took out Trump, yet the sentiment lingers. If democracy is indeed on the ballot, being neck and neck with Trump is a nightmare scenario for the Democrats. Trump has consistently outperformed poll numbers in both 2016 and 2020.
Biden didn’t help his case in a post-debate interview with George Stephanopoulos. When pondering a loss to Trump, Biden said he would feel content if he did his best. This sentiment didn’t sit well with Democrats and Never Trumpers alike. Democrats want ironclad assurances of victory over Trump, but the debate has opened the door to uncertainty.
An NBC News report highlighted Democratic panic post-assassination attempt, quoting a party strategist puzzled by the growing disbelief in Biden’s ability to win. Democrats desperately want to believe that their ticket’s success is a foregone conclusion or that Trump can’t pull off another victory. Current data, however, does little to soothe these nerves.
Even seemingly good news, like the NPR/PBS/Marist poll showing Biden marginally ahead, offers little comfort as Biden’s lead falls within the margin of error. Moreover, if battleground states’ polling remains unchanged, Biden could win the popular vote and still lose the Electoral College, just like Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
Biden’s team continues to pitch their narrative that the race is tight, voters won’t focus until post-conventions and their ground game in battleground states will trump Trump’s. These arguments, while plausible, wear thin against the specter of a second Trump term. Patience is running out.
For Biden, Trump is a double-edged sword. He’s controversial enough to keep Biden competitive, yet Trump is the reason Democrats can’t fathom losing. Trump’s influence looms over both major parties as much as it does over the GOP.
