Staff Reports
It appears that the winds of political change are beginning to shift significantly in favor of former President Donald Trump. Recent polls tell a story that the mainstream media would rather sweep under the rug, revealing that Kamala Harris’s inability to connect with voters may finally be backfiring. As her futile attempts to duck tough questions continue, the public’s view of her is becoming clearer and less forgiving.
Recent data from reputable sources like the New York Times/Siena College and Emerson College highlights Trump’s resurgence. The latest polling shows him with leads in key battleground states: 5 points ahead in Arizona, 4 points in Georgia, and 2 points in North Carolina according to the NYT. The Emerson poll paints a similarly rosy picture for Trump, capturing leads in various states, including Georgia and Wisconsin, while showing him neck-and-neck in Nevada. With Harris struggling, it’s becoming increasingly clear that a Trump victory in these areas could be a feasible outcome for 2024.
🇺🇲 National poll by Quinnipiac
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Oliver: 1%Last poll (8/27) – 🔵 Harris +1
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• #19 (2.8/3.0) | 1,728 LV | 9/19-22
• Party ID: D32/R30 | MoE: ±2.4%https://t.co/hFirxxVyz8 pic.twitter.com/riTdCczwX8— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2024
Even the latest Quinnipiac poll provides troubling news for Harris. Not only has Trump gained two points, swinging from a slight disadvantage to a narrow lead of 48 to 47 among likely voters, but this shift has broader implications for the Electoral College map. Despite a slightly larger Democratic sample, Trump has managed to beat Harris in overall popularity. This trend could spell trouble for Democrats going into the next election.
A deeper look into these polls points to Harris’s vulnerability. Among independents, Trump shows a 3-point advantage, underscoring the growing dissatisfaction with the Harris administration. Clearly, the enthusiasm that once bolstered her campaign is dwindling, having dropped from 75% to 70% among Democrats, while Trump has seen a modest bump in support. Interestingly, respondents believe Trump cares more about their needs than Harris does—49% to 48%. Such sentiments signal that voters are not just looking for another generic politician but are seeking genuine connection and responsiveness.
On critical issues like the economy and immigration, Trump has a clear edge, outpacing Harris by 7 and 8 points, respectively. Additionally, when it comes to crisis management, more people trust Trump to handle emergencies better than Harris. However, there’s a peculiar anomaly in the cross tabs—the numbers indicate Trump is winning over white voters by only 4% and Hispanics by 8%. If these metrics are correct, they seem insufficient to justify his overall lead being so slim. It raises eyebrows and suggests that Trump could be doing even better than reported, while Harris’s support continues to erode.
Perhaps the most alarming finding for Harris and her supporters is that a staggering 74% of Democrats would be “very upset” should she fail in her campaign. By comparison, it’s striking to remember that Quinnipiac had President Biden ahead by 10 points at this same time during the last cycle. If this trend continues, it spells deep trouble for the Democratic hopes in the upcoming election. With Harris’s longstanding neglect of pressing issues, including immigration, it’s about time she finally showed up at the southern border—not out of concern, but perhaps as a desperate attempt to aid her stumbling campaign.
