Staff Reports
New polling data from Emerson and The Hill has revealed that former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in all seven swing states surveyed. The data suggests that Trump holds an advantage over Biden in head-to-head settings as well as in wider fields. In some states such as Michigan and Arizona, there was no difference in Trump’s lead between the two scenarios, while in others like Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump’s advantage grows within a five-person race compared to the two-way ballot question.
Trump Just Got More Good Polling News, But What About Key Senate Races? https://t.co/pHqVhlsKNJ
— LAMAR G (@lamar_g17442) May 1, 2024
It’s important to note that these surveys were conducted between April 25-29, 2024, which coincided with Trump’s New York City trial. Remarkably, despite the heavy media coverage of the legal proceedings, it appears that Trump’s standing has not been negatively affected. In fact, there is speculation that the ongoing trial may have even helped his standing. The surveys also explored how a potential conviction in Trump’s New York City case might impact voters’ choices in these states. Independents were asked this question, and the results showed that a plurality said it would have no impact, with mixed responses depending on the state.
In addition to the presidential race, the surveys also tested several critical Senate races in these battleground states. The 2024 Senate map looks promising for Republicans, who need to gain two net seats to regain a majority in the upper chamber. The surveys found that Republicans are trailing in all five of the critical Senate races, though some races have shown movements towards GOP candidates over time. It’s worth noting that Democrats are out-raising Republicans, which could present a challenge for the GOP in the upcoming elections.
Ultimately, it appears that Trump’s standing in swing states is strong, and the Republican party is showing promise in the Senate races despite facing fundraising challenges. The polling data suggests that Trump’s support remains steady and that Republicans are making gains in critical Senate races.
