Staff Reports
The wires buzzed with excitement after a surprise poll released by The New York Times and Siena College, shaking up conventional wisdom regarding the presidential race. Kamala Harris, recently crowned the Democratic front-runner after elbowing Joe Biden aside, has often been viewed as a secure candidate. However, the latest data shows that Donald Trump is not only holding his ground but actually surpassing her in both direct matchups and multi-candidate scenarios.
Doubts abound, but naysayers attempting to dissect the details of this poll may find themselves looking quite foolish. The trend of “un-skewing” polls is fraught with peril and leads only to disappointment. Polls should be treated as a snapshot in time, added to the collective picture of public opinion, and then promptly filed away. Attempting to manipulate the data to fit a narrative is a surefire way to set oneself up for a rude awakening.
🇺🇲 National poll by NYT/Siena crosstabs
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 47%
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Full Ballot
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
Crosstabs
• Biden 2020 voters: Harris 92-6%
• Trump 2020 voters: Trump 97-2%
• Did not vote in 2020: Trump 49-40%
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• Men:… pic.twitter.com/jtPBwxRIBq— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 8, 2024
🚨NEW POLL🚨
New York Times Poll of Likely Voters
Trump 48%
Harris 47%Conducted from Sept. 3 to 6, n = 1,695 pic.twitter.com/lUlwKojBL8
— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) September 8, 2024
This particular poll presents a striking portrayal of societal dynamics, especially when it breaks down voting preferences among different demographics. The numbers appear credible—13 percent support from black voters for Trump isn’t far-fetched considering his outreach to black men. Other demographic slices, from educational attainment to age groups, align with trends seen over recent months. It paints a picture that could shake the foundations of Democratic confidence.
So what’s fueling Trump’s surge? An interesting twist emerges as it seems that those who opted out of voting in 2020 are embracing Trump this time around. In fact, he leads Harris among voters who did not participate in the last election by a margin of 49 to 40 percent. This revelation emphasizes the critical need for Republican voters to mobilize. If the disengaged don’t make it to the polls, there’s a genuine risk of Harris scooping up an easy win.
As the upcoming debate looms, the stakes have never been higher for Harris. With the pressure on, there’s a good chance she might slip up in her attempt to defend her fragile lead. In contrast, Trump has the opportunity to bide his time, letting Harris take the center stage and potentially make mistakes that could seal her fate. With her propensity for verbal gaffes, she might just end up doing the heavy lifting for him. In the grand theater of politics, it appears the script is beginning to favor the right.
