Staff Reports
Polls are starting to reveal an exciting trend: former President Donald Trump is making a significant comeback in the national vote. Recent surveys—conducted by respected sources like HarrisX/Forbes, the Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen, and CNBC—show Trump performing favorably, often leading by two to three points. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris is barely clinging to a slight edge in the Real Clear Politics average, thanks mainly to dubious polls like the Morning Consult. Clearly, even a slight shift in polling could flip the current narrative.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll has officially put Trump and Harris neck-and-neck at 48 percent—a statistical tie. Additionally, Trump is leading by one point when all candidates are considered, with a total of 47 to 46 percent. This new data clearly suggests that Trump is gaining traction, and the momentum is undeniably shifting in his favor, particularly given the unfavorable polling for Harris that appears to be propped up by questionable methodology.
Great piece by @nickaramaOG on RedState. Pretty much sums up the state of things on this final leg of the race.https://t.co/RD4AeL1lfY
— Snicker (@PillPicnic) October 25, 2024
For anyone keeping tabs on the election dynamics, the cross tabulations tell an even more revealing story. While Harris might show a narrow lead among independents, Trump is dominating when it comes to who voters believe would handle the most critical issues better. With an impressive 49 to 46 margin on that front and a remarkable 42 percent approval rating among Hispanic voters, it’s clear that Trump’s appeal is broadening. In fact, the notion that there is a meaningful contingent of “Republicans for Harris” is effectively debunked by the latest cross tabs.
When considering the Electoral College dynamics, any statistical tie is effectively a win for Trump. Historically, if a candidate is within two points of the opposition, the advantage shifts toward them. This puts Trump in an advantageous position as he appears to be in terrific shape for 2024. It’s shocking to think he might also capture the popular vote, a feat that has been elusive for Republicans in the past two decades. The prospect of a poorly performing candidate like Harris being outperformed in such a manner would surely send shockwaves through Democratic circles.
Reflecting on previous election cycles reveals just how significant this lead could be. In 2020, Joe Biden held an eight-point lead at this time and barely squeaked out a victory. Going back to 2016, Hillary Clinton was up by 5.1 percent on the RCP average, only to face defeat. With Trump leading in all major battleground states, he seems well-positioned to secure a considerable Electoral College victory. If these trends continue, he could rack up over 300 electoral votes.
As the election season heats up, it’s imperative for Trump and his supporters to focus on locking in those swing states. The results suggest he is on a roll, but every vote counts, especially in crucial states. The push for a victory by a Republican in the popular vote, coupled with a solid Electoral College win, could turn the narrative about Trump from controversial to an undeniable force in American politics.
