Staff Reports
A recent poll conducted among swing-state voters indicates that Joe Biden’s chances of being re-elected are being impacted by the border crisis and the state of the economy. In states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, 44 percent of registered voters chose former President Donald Trump as their preferred candidate, while only 35 percent chose Biden. When third-party candidates are excluded, Trump’s lead widens to 48 percent to Biden’s 42 percent.
Trump Crushes Biden Across the Board in Swing-State Poll, with Immigration Crisis Taking Center Stage
READ: https://t.co/Ak4mUPuTsn
— Constitutionalist 💯 🇺🇲 (@Kc_Casey1) January 31, 2024
When delving deeper into the poll conducted by Bloomberg/Morning Consult, it becomes apparent that those surveyed have more trust in Trump than in Biden when it comes to handling immigration, with a 52 to 30 percent margin in Trump’s favor. This margin has increased by five percentage points since the previous poll in December. Likewise, Trump is also more trusted to handle economic issues, leading by a 51 to 33 percent margin. These findings might seem contradictory, given that 71 percent of the same respondents believe that the U.S. economy is on the wrong track.
The poll also reveals that 96 percent of respondents consider the economy an important factor in how they plan to vote, while 84 percent feel the same about immigration. Furthermore, nearly two-thirds of those surveyed believe that Biden bears at least some responsibility for the surge in illegal immigration at the southern border. Additionally, the percentage of voters who view immigration as the single most important issue has increased in six out of the seven swing states polled.
The poll, which took place from January 16 to 22, surveyed 4,956 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percent. While the results of this online poll seem promising for Trump, there is still a chance that a criminal conviction against him could change things significantly. According to the Bloomberg poll, 53 percent of respondents claimed that they would be somewhat or very unwilling to vote for Trump if he were to be convicted. Meanwhile, both candidates have unfavorable ratings, with 58 percent of those surveyed viewing Biden unfavorably and 52 percent feeling the same about Trump.
It is worth mentioning that polling registered voters is generally considered to be less reliable than polling likely voters. The 2020 and 2022 elections showed that traditional campaigning and voting methods have become less impactful compared to mail-in ballots, ballot harvesting, and other techniques implemented by the Democrat machine. As a result, the effectiveness of the institutional GOP’s field organization for ballot collection remains unclear. Nevertheless, it is hoped that the Trump team has a strategy to maximize turnout.
Lastly, an intriguing finding from the poll is that 54 percent of respondents lack trust in Vice President Kamala Harris’s ability to take over for Biden if he were unable to continue in office. This may explain persistent rumors of Michelle Obama being a potential candidate. As Joe Biden’s job disapproval rating sits at 55 percent according to a Real Clear Politics aggregate of 10 polls, Trump currently shows a solid lead in the states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
