Staff Reports
The news is in: the Ukrainian spring and summer offensive against Russia is definitely underway. While the offensive hasn’t been officially declared yet, the Ukrainian armed forces have been releasing statements saying that D-Day is coming soon. Videos have been released, and there has been an increase in targeting of artillery and supply nodes. This has resulted in concentrated fires on Russian frontline positions, followed by a series of attacks along the frontline. However, there have been no sightings of Leopard 2 or Challenger 2 tanks, indicating that they are still being held in reserve.
The time has come to take back what belongs to us. pic.twitter.com/sH1Yrggg8U
— Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (@CinC_AFU) May 27, 2023
The operational concept for the Ukrainian offensive appears to be to probe the Russian frontline, making opportunistic gains while keeping the command centre off balance. These attacks allow the Ukrainians to judge the defending troops and the defensive line, as weak points are identified. Once weak areas are identified, we can expect to see some of the estimated twenty brigades, including six armored brigades, that have been kept out of sight, make their appearance.
Germany, on the other hand, has decided to shut down Russian consulates and allow Ukrainian strikes in Russia. This comes after months of Germany turning a blind eye to Russia’s actions. One can’t help but wonder what took so long for Germany to take action. This just proves that when it comes to dealing with Russia, Germany would rather do nothing.
Furthermore, Antony Blinken has laid out US policy in Ukraine. He has stated that the only way the war will end is if Ukraine regains control of its pre-1991 borders, meaning that the Russians must be forced to leave Donbas and Crimea. Ukraine must also be viewed as a sovereign nation free to make its own economic, political, and military alliances. Blinken laying down this marker goes a long way in making this happen. Russians have started to hit civilian targets in lightly defended cities, primarily because their missile attacks against heavily defended targets have been unsuccessful.
As of now, four identifiable Ukrainian offensive operations are underway. Northern Kharkiv has seen action east of Kupiansk that may be focused on reducing the Russian salient along the border. North and south of Bakhmut, a drive is underway, and further south there is a series of offensive actions on the southern flank of the Ukrainian salient at Avdiivka. Lastly, the Ukrainians are pushing against the shoulders of a Russian salient in southern Donetsk. None of these appear to be the setup for the main assault, instead, they are shaping and economy of force operations designed to freeze Russian forces in place.
The Russian military command and Putin cronies have had a shaky relationship with Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner PMC, as he accuses the Russian command of depriving Wagner of ammunition and artillery support. Wagner announced that its men were handing Bakhmut over to Chechen troops and cleared out. Russian lieutenant colonel Roman Venevitin gave a video confession of ordering the mining of Wagner’s routes and firing on a vehicle carrying Wagner fighters. The prisoner video could only have been released because Prigozhin is connected to Putin. Still, one must assume that he’s serving some function.
Polish Volunteer Corps has been reported to participate in the Russian invasion of Belgorod Oblast as two Russian “separatist” units under nominal Ukrainian control invaded Russia. Lastly, Russia is convinced that Ukraine is behind the explosion of the dam at Nova K
Source: Red State
