Staff Reports
As October rolls in, it brings with it a time-honored political tradition: the October surprise. This phrase describes unexpected events or revelations that can dramatically shift the landscape of a presidential campaign, often right before elections. History shows that these surprises can range from serious scandalous admissions to mere rumors that somehow gain traction. Examining past surprises offers a look into political tactics and the unpredictable nature of electoral politics in America.
One of the earliest notable October surprises dates back to 1880 during the presidential race between Republican James Garfield and his Democratic opponent, Winfield Scott Hancock. Just days before the election, a forged letter—known as the Morey Letter—surfaced, allegedly written by Garfield, suggesting leniency toward Chinese immigration, which was highly controversial at the time. Democrats quickly seized upon the letter, distributing hundreds of thousands of copies to sway voters, particularly in California. Although Garfield ultimately won the election, he narrowly lost California by just 144 votes. This early example of political sabotage demonstrates how misinformation can shape electoral outcomes, a tactic that still persists today.
Fast forward to 2000, when George W. Bush was impacted by an October surprise just days before the election. News broke about a DWI arrest from the 1970s, throwing his campaign into turmoil. Rather than hiding from the issue, Bush addressed it directly, admitting his mistake and turning the narrative into one about personal growth and responsibility. This transparent approach helped minimize the scandal’s impact, and Bush went on to win the election. It shows how candidates’ responses to such revelations can influence voters, as transparency and reframing often mitigate damage.
The 2016 election is perhaps one of the most memorable for its October surprises. Donald Trump faced backlash when the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape was released, exposing controversial comments about women. Rather than this revelation derailing his campaign, Trump managed to shift focus by attacking his opponent, Hillary Clinton, particularly by referencing her husband Bill Clinton’s past. Shortly afterward, another bombshell dropped when FBI Director James Comey announced the reopening of an investigation into Clinton’s emails just days before voting. These twin surprises heightened the already intense race, with both candidates managing the fallout differently.
Looking toward current elections, speculation about potential October surprises is always high. Natural disasters, for instance, have influenced past campaigns, such as Hurricane Sandy’s impact on the 2012 election when Barack Obama was praised for his crisis management. Similarly, this year, attention has turned toward Vice President Kamala Harris and how unforeseen events, like hurricanes, could either boost or hinder her campaign.
Ultimately, October surprises are a hallmark of U.S. presidential elections, testing candidates’ resilience and adaptability. These events remind voters of the unpredictable nature of political campaigns, where even the smallest revelation or rumor can tilt the outcome.
