Staff Reports
The enthusiasm among Democrats for Vice President Kamala Harris seems to be flying a little too high for Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s comfort. The Michigan Democrat, while trying to keep the party from popping the champagne just yet, has warned her fellow Democrats that believing a five-point lead for Harris over Donald Trump is a safe bet is the kind of wishful thinking that gets candidates sent packing.
Recent polls, including one from CNN, show Harris leading Trump by nearly five points in Michigan, much to the delight of Democrats. However, with her party’s history of miscalculating election outcomes, Whitmer isn’t buying into the celebratory vibes. She expressed concern about the reliability of such polls, indicating the data doesn’t tell the full story. It’s as if she knows the bitter taste of defeat all too well; just remember how many Democrats thought they had it in the bag in 2016.
Why Whitmer Is Nervous About the Upcoming Election https://t.co/nukZt1QNXZ
— Salem News Channel (@WatchSalemNews) September 9, 2024
Whitmer brought attention to the fact that multiple candidates will be on the Michigan ballot—notably Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Chase Oliver from the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein from the Green Party. This colorful mix could siphon votes away from Harris, especially since RFK Jr. has made headlines for indicating a preference for which state ballots he wants his name to remain on. While Democrats may be reveling in the thought of a Harris victory, Whitmer appears to be sounding the alarm that things may not go as smoothly as they hope. The last thing they want is to relive the shocking loss in 2016 when the less-than-believable happened, and Trump secured a state Democrats thought was theirs.
In her dive into the complexities of the Michigan electorate, she reminded Democrats that this swing state has a remarkable history of unpredictability. Over the years, Michigan has oscillated between Republican and Democratic governors, with the pendulum swinging all over the place. Whitmer pointed out that this fluid political environment makes predicting outcomes particularly tricky and suggests that no one should get too cozy with any poll that could vanish like morning fog come election day.
The comparisons with past predictions also paint a cautionary tale about interpreting polling data too optimistically. In 2020, polls were certain that Biden would win Michigan by a comfortable margin, yet he barely scraped by. In 2016, Clinton was supposedly ahead by a decent margin, only to discover that the state had other plans. It seems that history might be repeating itself, much to the dismay of forecasting enthusiasts looking for a straightforward victory.
Whitmer’s remarks serve as a wake-up call to Democrats who might be tempted to relax in their comfortable bubble of confidence. The Michigan governor knows that if they want to secure a win, they better not let their guard down, regardless of what the polls might suggest. In a state full of surprises, the only certainty is that they can’t afford to underestimate the power of a Trump rally or the whims of independent voters who just might go rogue.
