Staff Reports
Will November bring a red wave or hold for Democrats?
Either way, American politics will undergo a tectonic transformation, even if it seems small now.
November will provide long-awaited election results at all levels, but most will focus on the House, Senate, and governorships. Two of the three primary choices would change what it means to be a Republican or Democrat leader for years to come.
Scenario 1: All-out GOP victory
If Republicans do well in November and win congressional majorities, conservatives will demand responsibility from the Biden administration. The new freshmen class will want to be heard, and they and vociferous Republicans will probe and prevent any Biden and Democratic legislation or misconduct.
At the state and municipal levels, seats will swing quickly. Many Republican candidates have declared they'll oppose the president, which will be watched in state legislatures and governors' offices. Given state and federal powers, can they keep their promises? Wait.
If more "parents first" candidates are elected to school boards, expect local news to focus on the improvements they'll make. The coronavirus outbreak attracted increased attention from parents to what children were taught, thus it will be fascinating to watch whether any school boards switch conservative or have a less dominant liberal/progressive majority.
Scenario 2: Democrats hold or gain ground
If Democrats keep the House and gain Senate ground, the filibuster is likely dead. Prepare for agenda items held up by Krysten Sinema and Joe Manchin to reach President Joe Biden's desk. In this instance, policy will cause a seismic upheaval, as it has in recent years. Some Republicans may feel compelled to reflect on nominees at all levels, and there will be discussion about whether Trump-backed or extremely supported candidates should have won their primaries. This argument won't likely affect the 2024 election.
Scenario 3: Republicans win Congress narrowly, overall.
This situation is more Washington deadlock. If Republicans narrowly take the House and Senate, this should be enough to hold up the Biden plan, but nobody should anticipate broad swamp reform. Democrats are in a similar bind.
In scenario 3, state and local changes are more interesting. Any time a governor disagrees with the legislature or any state leader, tensions rise. Depending on how tenacious politicians are, this friction might lead to moderate policy frameworks or deadlock. With a month to the election, people must realize change is coming. In these polarized times, voters should comprehend the larger ramifications of their votes at all levels of government.
The preceding is a summary of an article that originally appeared on Red State.
