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Ken Paxton climbed back into a television studio this week to do what every candidate does in the final sprint: reassure his side and try to steal the narrative. On Fox’s America Reports, the Texas attorney general leaned on two things his voters understand — big turnout numbers and a blunt economic pitch — and told viewers he expects Texas to “stay a STRONG Republican state.”
Paxton’s late-game pitch: turnout and the economy
Paxton’s message was simple and aimed at the base: record early voting proves the GOP is energized, and his plan to lower costs and cut taxes will keep jobs coming. He didn’t mince words — he positioned the race as one where Republicans can hold the line, leaning on economic themes that matter to real people, not polling-room hypotheticals. That kind of plain talk lands with voters who are tired of policy wonks and campaign consultants telling them what’s best.
The numbers are big — and messy
Here’s the inconvenient truth for anyone counting chickens: Texas did break early‑vote records this cycle, with more than 7.5 million — roughly 7.7 million — Texans casting early ballots. But big turnout isn’t a map to victory by itself. Recent likely‑voter polling from the University of Houston shows the race razor‑thin, with James Talarico narrowly ahead in a survey that still sits within the margin of error.
What this fight means for ordinary Texans
If you live in a small town or run a neighborhood business, this contest isn’t academic. Paxton’s pitch — taxes, affordability, jobs — is meant to translate into cheaper gas at the pump, lower payroll burdens for shop owners, and steadier hiring. Talarico’s emphasis on affordability aims at the same issues from a different angle; which promises win out will determine policy decisions that touch mortgages, childcare costs, and whether entrepreneurs can hire the next employee.
Final stretch: turnout will decide it
Both sides smell blood and are pouring resources into the last hours of the campaign. Paxton’s confidence is meant to keep the GOP base from staying home; Talarico’s campaign is banking on heavy Democratic returns in urban and suburban counties. So here’s the blunt question for voters: if you care about taxes, jobs, and who calls the shots in Congress, are you going to sit this one out — or will you show up and decide whether Texas really does “stay a STRONG Republican state”?
