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President Donald Trump’s approval rating in Arizona has slipped to the lowest point Noble Predictive Insights has recorded in its AZPOP tracking. That is the news: a fresh NPI poll shows a 39/58 split among registered Arizona voters — a net approval of -19 — and it is sending a clear message to Republicans in the state. Polls don’t win elections, but they do light alarms, and this one is ringing loudly.
What the new NPI Arizona poll actually found
The August AZPOP surveyed 1,040 registered Arizona voters (including 923 likely voters) via an opt‑in online panel and reported a net approval of -19 for President Donald Trump (39% approve, 58% disapprove). NPI flagged two trouble spots: Trump’s handling of the economy (net -25) and his handling of the Iran conflict (net -25). NPI’s founder and CEO Mike Noble called the result “the lowest the AZPOP has recorded” and said Arizona voters are “frustrated with the economy.” Methodology matters here — the poll used an opt‑in sample with a margin of error around three points — so take the exact digits with a grain of salt, but don’t ignore the trend.
Why Arizona voters are souring — and who to blame
Arizona is a state that rewarded Trump for promises on the economy and avoiding foreign entanglements. When voters say the president is failing on the economy and the Iran situation, they are comparing promises to results. That is a problem Republicans can fix if they treat it like a problem, not an annoyance. As Noble put it, Trump “has proven his support has a higher floor but a lower ceiling than Joe Biden.” Translation: the base sticks around, but persuadable voters are slipping away.
Down‑ballot danger for Republicans
AZPOP doesn’t stop at presidential approval. NPI’s release showed Democrats leading in key statewide matchups: Attorney General Kris Mayes ahead of Senate President Warren Petersen in the AG race, and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes leading Alex Kolodin in the secretary of state contest, while Kimberly Yee holds a narrower edge in another race. NPI warns Trump’s low ratings are creating “headwinds” for Republicans down-ballot. In plain terms: if Arizona voters are mad about gas prices and a messy foreign flashpoint, they may vote to split the ticket — and Republicans will lose offices they shouldn’t.
What Republicans should do next
This poll is a blunt wake-up call. Ignore the hand-wringing about pollster methods and focus on results: shore up the economic message, offer clear plans on costs of living and housing, and explain why avoiding bigger wars matters. Republicans in Arizona should stop treating headlines as destiny and start doing the messy work of persuasion. Voters here still say the state is on the right track, but their patience is thin — and politics rewards those who fix problems, not those who deny them. Take the poll seriously, act quickly, and stop letting Democratic officeholders look like the only ones with answers.
