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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just made a blunt case for the administration’s immigration push: tougher enforcement, fewer foreign-born workers, and rising pay for low-wage Americans. He said the drop in mass, unfettered immigration and aggressive removals have put more jobs and higher wages into the hands of the country’s lowest-paid workers. That claim is newsworthy, and it deserves both a nod and a close look at the data behind it.
Bessent’s claim: enforcement helped lower-wage workers
At Breitbart’s State of the Economy event, Secretary Bessent argued that when the border was tightened and removals increased, workers without college degrees saw some of their best labor-market outcomes in years. He said wages for the bottom 25 percent rose several times faster than wages for the top 25 percent, and that the drop in foreign-born employment has helped average Americans. In plain language: enforcement, he said, put more money in the pockets of the people who need it most.
What the data actually show
Wages and foreign‑born employment
The August jobs report backs a simple part of his point: private-sector average hourly earnings are up about 3.1 percent year-over-year and the commonly cited average hourly wage is roughly $37.75. The BLS household series also shows the number of employed foreign-born people down by about one million from early 2025 to the latest reading — so the “fewer foreign-born workers” piece is real. Those are facts that line up with the Treasury chief’s broad case: wages are rising and the foreign-born share of employment has fallen.
Where his numbers need a receipt
Two claims need clearer sourcing. First, the “two to three million deportations” line is not a single, verifiable number in public ICE/DHS removal data. Agencies sometimes mix formal removals with returns or voluntary departures, and that makes large tallies look bigger than a strict count of formal deportations would. Second, the “bottom 25% up 3–3.5x versus top 25%” multiplier was stated publicly by Bessent but isn’t reproduced in a single public BLS or Fed table I could find. If you’re going to take a victory lap, bring the receipts — not a soundbite.
Why this matters — and the clear conservative case
This matters because it proves a simple point conservatives have been making for years: labor supply matters, and immigration policy is economic policy. The administration’s tougher stance appears to be helping lower-wage Americans, based on headline wage gains and the fall in foreign-born employment. That’s a win for working families and a reminder that policy choices have real effects. But wins should be documented. The Treasury should publish the memos or calculations behind the multiplier and clarify exactly what counts as a “deportation.” Praise is deserved when earned, and transparency makes the case airtight — and keeps auditors and critics from spinning the story into a muddled mess. In short: enforcement works, data back much of the claim, but conservatives should insist on clear numbers before we celebrate too loudly.
