Staff Reports
Storm clouds are gathering over the White House as President Biden’s re-election campaign faces signs of weakness in swing states like Nevada. Jon Ralston, a Nevada-based reporter, warns in the liberal magazine The Atlantic that economic troubles could pave the way for Trump’s victory in the state. While Ralston expresses skepticism about a New York Times-Siena College poll showing Trump leading Biden in Nevada by 10 points, he believes Democrats should still be worried.
Nevada has been leaning towards the red side in recent election cycles, with former Democratic governor Steve Sisolak’s defeat in 2022 and the narrow victory of Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto in the same year serving as examples, according to Ralston. In 2020, Biden won Nevada by a slim margin of just over 2%, which was even smaller than Hillary Clinton’s margin in 2016. Ralston points out that Nevada was the only battleground state where Democrats performed worse in 2020 compared to 2016.
The shifting political landscape is evident across the country, with Biden’s lead among Hispanic voters now reduced to single digits, as reported by the New York Times poll. Biden’s performance has been particularly weak in swing states with higher minority populations, like Nevada, where he only managed to secure a lead in the predominantly white state of Wisconsin.
The same Times-Siena College poll revealed that Hispanic voters, who make up 30% of Nevada’s population, are evenly split between Trump and Biden. It’s worth noting that no Republican presidential candidate has won Nevada since George W. Bush in 2004. However, the casino-centric economy of Nevada was severely impacted by COVID-19, and if Biden fails to address the ongoing economic struggles, it could potentially shift the state’s favor towards Trump, according to Ralston.
While Democrats in Nevada are aiming to protect abortion rights through a ballot initiative next year, the public’s concerns about inflation undercut Biden’s economic agenda. If the election becomes solely about Biden and his handling of the economy, Ralston warns that “Trump could plausibly win Nevada—and the Electoral College.”
Meanwhile, Democrats are growing increasingly concerned about Trump’s expanding influence with Latino voters, as he gains more access to Univision, the largest Spanish-language television network in the country. Trump recently invited executives from the historically left-leaning network to Mar-A-Lago for an interview, potentially amplifying his reach among Latino voters.
President Biden’s re-election campaign is facing stormy weather in Nevada, with signs of weakness and a potentially vulnerable economy. Supporters of Trump are gaining ground in the state, and Biden’s lead among Hispanic voters is slipping. If these trends continue, Trump could secure victory in Nevada and potentially the Electoral College. The Democrats’ focus on protecting abortion rights may be overshadowed by concerns about inflation and the economy. Additionally, Trump’s increasing access to Univision gives him an opportunity to expand his reach among Latino voters. The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be an intense battle in Nevada.
