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A recent commentary by volcanologist Bill McGuire has set off another round of breathless headlines about a possible “megatsunami” from the Cumbre Vieja ridge on La Palma. Before you start checking evacuation maps for Florida beaches, let’s be clear: this piece restates a worst‑case theory that has been around for decades, not a new finding that says the collapse is imminent.
What Bill McGuire is warning about
McGuire argues the western flank of Cumbre Vieja could one day fail and, in a single huge collapse, fling enough rock into the ocean to produce enormous waves near the volcano and significant waves across the Atlantic. He quotes the old high‑end computer scenarios that imagined huge near‑source waves and modeled the possibility of tall waves reaching the U.S. East Coast within hours. He also admits he cannot say when this would happen — it could be centuries or millennia. The news hook this week is his Science Focus commentary, which reminded everyone that the worst‑case story still exists.
Why reputable agencies and newer science disagree
That worst‑case comes from an early model using a single, coherent slide. More recent, more careful studies — and agencies such as the U.S. Geological Survey and tsunami experts at NOAA — have shown a different picture. Modern models include better ocean floor maps and more realistic slide behavior. They find very large waves close to La Palma but much smaller waves across the Atlantic. USGS summaries put a far‑field worst‑case at around one to two meters (about three to seven feet) along the U.S. coast — dangerous, yes, but not the apocalyptic wall of water that tabloids love. Geologists also note past collapses tend to happen in stages, not one massive block, which reduces the cross‑ocean punch.
Don’t fall for the panic. Watch the science and the monitors.
Here’s where the column gets political and practical. Media outlets chase clicks, not nuance, so alarmist headlines spread fast. But agencies monitor volcanoes and would detect the seismic and ground changes that precede major flank failure. NOAA’s National Tsunami Warning Center and local Canary Islands monitoring teams (PEVOLCA and the Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias) would issue alerts based on data, not op‑eds. If you care about real safety, trust the monitoring and invest in sensible coastal planning and emergency systems — not breathless doomsday coverage.
Bottom line: serious, but not sudden
McGuire has revived a scary scenario that deserves attention because the mechanics are real. But it’s not new science, and the balance of more recent research and official assessments says the extreme headlines overstate the U.S. risk. Keep an eye on monitoring reports, encourage robust warning systems, and chuckle a little at how fast the Internet enjoys a good apocalypse story. Panic is cheap; preparedness costs money — and common sense.
