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The latest August jobs report stunned the usual parade of gloomy forecasts — and the White House’s top economic adviser was happy to say so. At Breitbart’s State of the Economy event, Christopher Phelan, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, highlighted how the official numbers beat the Bloomberg panel of economists by a wide margin. This isn’t about name-calling; it’s about real people getting paychecks and factories humming again.
Big Beat: Jobs Report Tops Bloomberg Economists
Phelan told the audience that the August jobs print was “three times higher than the Bloomberg median estimate” and, he added, it beat every single forecast in Bloomberg’s panel of 77 economists. Those are his words at a partisan event, and he was quoting the surprise around the number — not rewriting the data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, while consensus forecasts had been around 55,000. That’s a gap big enough to make headline writers sweat and policy wonks rethink assumptions.
What the Numbers Show and How Markets Reacted
The BLS also revised June and July upward by a combined 55,000 jobs, making the payroll picture even stronger. The unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, not higher as some expected. Traders responded quickly: Treasury yields ticked up and markets began to price in a higher chance of a near-term Federal Reserve rate move. In plain English: stronger hiring can mean tighter money sooner — which matters for borrowing costs, savers, and anyone with a mortgage.
Capital Spending, Manufacturing, and Reshoring
Phelan went on to point to capital expenditures, saying business investment is on track to nearly double last year’s level and that factory construction and manufacturing hiring are rising. Those are big claims and worth watching closely; if capex really is accelerating, the growth could be durable rather than a one-month fluke. He also credited policy moves like 100 percent expensing and reshoring incentives for bringing production back home — exactly the kind of results a pro-growth agenda promised to deliver.
Why It Matters
This matters for voters and markets alike. A stronger jobs backdrop bolsters the case that pro-growth policies are working and forces the Fed to pay attention. It also exposes how badly economist consensus can miss the moment when the economy shifts gears. Credit where credit’s due: real jobs and rising investment beat doom-and-gloom forecasts any day. Keep an eye on capex and manufacturing numbers next — if they stay strong, the surprise won’t be the jobs print but how long the skeptics stay surprised.
