adminA new wave of performative opinions by conservative federal appellate judges has legal watchers talking — and the timing sure looks convenient. The Washington Post and other outlets have flagged judges who are writing flashy dissents and even posting filmed dissents, moves many say are thinly veiled auditions for a possible Supreme Court vacancy. If you thought judges stayed above the political fray, think again.
What the reporting actually found
Reporters point to real examples. Judge Lawrence VanDyke opened a recent Ninth Circuit dissent with a line that made headlines and then published a filmed dissent in another case where he handled firearms on camera. Judges like James C. Ho and Andrew Oldham have written forceful, public-facing opinions on hot-button topics such as immigration and citizenship that line up with the current administration’s talking points. Law professors quoted in the coverage summed it up plainly: the prospect of a vacancy “increases the incentives to audition as much as possible.” That’s not gossip — it’s a pattern you can read in court opinions and watch on video.
Why conservative judges are auditioning — and why it matters
This behavior is strategic. President Trump values a combative style and clear loyalty. With a Republican Senate and lower barriers to confirmation than in years past, the path from appeals court to the Supreme Court is more open than it used to be. That changes the incentives. Judges who want a seat are signaling their views loudly, hoping to get noticed by the White House and conservative legal groups that vet nominees. In short: this is about positioning for a Trump Supreme Court pick and about securing a conservative judiciary for decades.
Don’t mistake theater for certainty
That said, flashy dissents are not a smoking gun that a Supreme Court vacancy is about to drop. Retirements at the Court usually come suddenly and often near the end of the term. Statements from people “close to” a justice denying retirement plans are common and not decisive. What this pattern does show is that some judges believe a vacancy could happen — or at least want to make sure they’d be in the running if it does.
What to watch next — and a final word
Keep an eye on any retirement announcement near the close of the Court’s term — that’s the real signal. If a justice steps down, expect a fast, political fight over a Trump Supreme Court pick, with confirmation shaped by Senate control. For conservatives, the lesson is simple: these auditions are a reminder that the next vacancy could change the law for a generation. For everyone else, it’s a reminder that Washington’s theater now plays out in court opinions and on video feeds. Either way, the jockeying is real — and it’s loud.
