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A new Citizens Budget Commission (CBC) analysis just put hard numbers on a problem New York’s leaders prefer to ignore: the state’s share of America’s millionaires slipped from 12.7% to 8.7% between 2010 and 2022, and that shift cost New York roughly $10.7 billion in personal‑income‑tax revenue in 2022 alone. That finding is now fueling a fight in Albany and City Hall as Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani presses for a millionaires’ tax and Governor Kathy Hochul tries to tread carefully. In short: we have a tax debate built on the bones of fleeing money.
What the CBC actually found — and why it hurts
The CBC used IRS filing data to show New York’s slice of the nation’s millionaires fell sharply, and then estimated how much tax revenue the state and city would have collected in 2022 if that share had stayed the same. Their bottom line: about $10.7 billion less for the state and another $2.5 billion less for the city. Those are big numbers because New York’s personal income tax is heavily dependent on high earners — roughly the top 1% pay about 40–45% of the state’s PIT. Yes, the report notes that New York still added millionaires in absolute terms; other states just grew richer faster. And yes, capital gains make some years jumpy. But the main point is plain: when a small group pays a large share, losing even a few of them matters a lot.
Mamdani’s push meets reality — and a cautious governor
Mayor Mamdani is pitching a 2‑point surcharge on incomes above $1 million to close a city budget gap. Cue predictable calls to “tax the rich” — which, as the CBC shows, risks the very out‑migration the mayor fears. Governor Hochul has signaled caution because the city can’t impose a PIT surcharge without state approval. So you have a lefty mayor calling for more taxes while the state executive keeps one eye on competitiveness and the other on math. The political theater is entertaining if you enjoy watching politicians double down on policies that bite the hand feeding the budget.
Policy choices and the tradeoffs nobody wants to admit
This is where common sense should show up, but it often doesn’t. New York faces a real problem: a narrow tax base that swings with capital markets and mobile high earners. The options are simple in theory and messy in practice — cut spending, broaden the tax base, or try to keep and attract high earners with better competitiveness. Raising targeted taxes on millionaires may sound fair, but the CBC report is a reminder that “fair” can quickly turn into fewer jobs, less investment, and lower revenue. If New York wants to stop hemorrhaging money, policymakers must stop treating wealth as an endless ATM and start treating competitiveness as a policy goal.
Bottom line: stop punishing success and start fixing the system
The CBC analysis should be a wake‑up call. New York can squabble over surtaxes and viral videos all it wants, but the math is stubborn: heavy reliance on a few big payers makes the budget fragile. Mayor Mamdani and Governor Hochul owe New Yorkers a plan that respects competitiveness while protecting core services — not more slogans and short‑term grabs. If leaders keep reflexively taxing the wealthy, New York will keep paying the price in lost revenue, lost jobs, and a slower recovery. That’s not progressive; it’s just poor policy dressed up as virtue signaling.
