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The latest New York Times / Portland Press Herald / Siena poll of Maine likely voters landed like a splash of cold water on Democrats’ hopes. It shows Democrat Graham Platner narrowly ahead of U.S. Senator Susan Collins, but the lead is tiny and inside the poll’s margin of error. More important than the two-point edge are the red flags voters raised about Platner’s character and past controversies.
Poll shows a tight race — and big warning signs for Platner
The Siena poll of 608 likely voters finds Platner at about 49% and Senator Collins at about 47%, a gap well within the reported ±4.8 percentage points margin of error. That sounds close until you look at the character questions. Roughly two‑thirds of respondents rate Collins higher on “good character” and “moral values.” Many Mainers describe Platner as “too extreme,” and a sizable share say recent revelations have either made them unable to support him or are causing them to question their support.
Numbers that matter for control of the Senate
Why does this matter beyond Maine? Because control of the U.S. Senate is on the line, and this race was supposed to be a relatively easy pickup for Democrats. Instead, the data shows a messy mix: voters who want Democrats to run the Senate still exist in Maine, but candidate quality is changing behavior. About 28% said they cannot back Platner because of the controversies, another chunk are rethinking their vote, and roughly 39% say the scandals don’t matter. Translation: national tides can help you, but a weak nominee can sink a wave.
What Democrats and Republicans will do next
Democrats doubled down on Platner after the primary, and national operatives have invested political capital in Maine. That was a gamble — betting on a nominee with a pile of baggage. Republicans and the NRSC have been patient, waiting for the legal and strategic deadline that would allow a last‑minute replacement if Platner were to collapse. Expect more attack ads, fresh polling, and a scramble for narratives. Collins still has clear advantages with some key groups, especially non‑college voters, where the old incumbent’s standing looks surprisingly strong.
Bottom line: the poll is not a knockout blow for either side, but it is a delivery of reality to the DNC. Platner’s slim lead is flimsy, and character doubts are real swing factors. If Republicans play smart, they can keep the focus on Platner’s scandals and make this a referendum on judgment rather than national headlines. If Democrats keep pretending the controversies don’t matter, they’re banking the Senate on wishful thinking — and wishful thinking doesn’t win close races in Maine or anywhere else.
