Staff Reports
In a new batch of swing state polling from the New York Times and Siena College, former President Donald Trump appears to be gaining strength in a potential 2024 rematch with President Joe Biden. While there are caveats to consider, such as the unpredictability of voters’ attitudes and the massive amount of money that will be spent by Democrats to influence the election, the current numbers are causing panic in Democratic circles.
The polling shows Trump leading or tied with Biden in critical swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This would be an electoral college blowout if it holds true. However, there are reasons for skepticism. It’s hard to believe that Trump would be up by double digits in Nevada, a state he has lost twice in previous elections. Additionally, the cross-tabs of the poll reveal some surprising results, like Trump being within single-digits among young voters and attracting significant support from Black voters.
NYT/Siena Poll: Trump Is Ahead in Five of Six Swing States.
Nevada
Trump 52%
Biden 41%
~~
Georgia
Trump 49%
Biden 43%
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Arizona
Trump 49%
Biden 44%
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Michigan
Trump 48%
Biden 43%
~~
Pennsylvania
Trump 48%
Biden 44%
~~
Wisconsin
Biden 47%
Trump 45%https://t.co/95el9rOVGV pic.twitter.com/OlCI9Dc0mr— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 5, 2023
As a conservative Republican, the author of this article expresses doubt about these numbers, but also acknowledges that if any erosion of Biden’s support, coupled with disillusionment among his supporters or the rise of alternative candidates, were to occur, Trump could easily win in 2024. The author also points out that the Times/Siena polling overestimated Biden’s victory margins in the previous election, casting doubt on the accuracy of their current findings.
One significant factor working in Trump’s favor is his strong performance on the economy. Voters across all income levels credited Trump’s policies for helping them personally, while they believed Biden’s policies had hurt them. Additionally, Biden’s age is seen as a liability, with 71 percent of voters believing he is “too old” to be an effective president.
While it is impossible to predict the state of the race a year from now, these poll results suggest that if a rematch were held this week, Trump would have a good chance of winning, possibly by a large margin. The author also speculates on whether the coverage of this poll and the resulting panic among Democrats could be a sign that journalists, who are typically aligned with the Democratic Party, are trying to push Biden out of the race. Only time will tell.
