Staff Reports
In general, it’s important to be careful about making big conclusions from elections with fewer voters. But let’s talk about Pennsylvania’s primary election this week. Since both major party’s main races were pretty much decided, there weren’t as many people voting. And the people who did vote might not show the whole picture of what voters across the state are thinking. On the left side of things, some people may have been eager to vote to send a strong message to President Biden over what’s happening in Gaza.
In the data from the Republican side, there were some concerns about enthusiasm and unity. More Democrats voted in the presidential race than Republicans, and Biden got a much higher share of his party’s votes than Donald Trump did. The number of people voting in the primary was much lower than it was in 2016, and Trump won the state that year by a small amount. In another important race this week, way more Democrats voted than Republicans. Why did so many more Democrats vote in this lower-profile race than the big one? It might be because some people who support a group unhappy with Biden’s handling of the Gaza situation wrote in their votes against him, but then still voted as usual in the other race.
But even without these write-in votes against him, Biden got a lot more votes than Trump did in the primary this week. The current president got about 925,000 votes, while Trump got around 790,000. This was a closed primary, so only registered Republicans could take part, and more than 150,000 people voted for Nikki Haley, even though she dropped out weeks ago. These votes can’t be blamed on Democrats or left-leaning independents getting involved. These were actual Republican voters, and a lot of them live in key suburban areas where the party has struggled since 2016. This shows that these Republicans need to be listened to and not ignored.
Haley said when she left the race that it’s up to Trump to earn the votes of people who didn’t support him, and she’s right. One thing that might help win over some of the people who voted for Haley is Trump’s choice for a running mate. This matters a lot this time, especially since both presidential candidates are very old. Trump’s pick would be the only new face in what will otherwise be a very familiar election. This is a chance to reassure people who are against giving Biden another term but also aren’t fully comfortable with Trump. This decision really matters.
Former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley received more than 150,000 votes in the Pennsylvania GOP primary despite having dropped out of the race weeks ago. https://t.co/EuE6TxON3u
— The Hill (@thehill) April 25, 2024
Despite talk about problems with Biden and the Democratic party, Pennsylvania Republicans showed a warning sign for the Trump campaign on Tuesday. This isn’t just a one-time thing in one important state. Many recent Republican primary elections have had around one in five voters going against Trump. Many of them might still vote for him in November, but some might be considering other options, including Biden. These voters are important and can be won over, so it’s not a good idea to ignore them.
Lastly, the Pennsylvania results fit with other data showing that Democrats are better at getting people who are likely to vote to actually do it. Republicans will need to rely on less consistent voters to win in the big election, and that won’t be easy. Trump and the Republican party have a lot of work ahead of them to identify and get thepeople who probably support Trump but haven’t voted before. This could be the difference between winning and losing. There’s some recent polling that looks good for Trump in swing states, including Pennsylvania, but the big question is whether all these people will actually vote. The Democrats seem to have an advantage in getting their supporters to turn out.
