Staff Reports
A recent poll has revealed that former President Donald Trump may be leading the race for the presidency over President Joe Biden. The new analysis from the polling outfit, TIPP/Insights, found several key indicators suggesting Trump’s possible advantage.
One important factor is independent voters, who are expected to have a significant impact on the upcoming election. According to the poll, Trump is leading among independents, with 35% supporting him compared to 30% for Biden. This is a significant shift from the last election when independents favored Biden over Trump.
Pollster figures out weird Trump-Biden results: Ask your neighbor https://t.co/3ShVdd66I9 via @dcexaminer pic.twitter.com/5Yl46A3cvb
— Paul Bedard (@SecretsBedard) May 8, 2024
The poll also found that Biden is losing his previous overwhelming support from Black and Hispanic voters. In the 2020 election, African Americans overwhelmingly supported Biden, but the recent poll shows a significant decline in support, with only 59% now in favor of Biden. Similarly, among Hispanics, Biden’s support has dropped to 47%, compared to 65% in the previous election.
Another key finding is the intensity of voter support for each candidate, with Trump leading 64% to 54%. Additionally, when asked who they think will win the election, more voters indicated Trump over Biden, 37% to 34%.
One of the most interesting conclusions from the poll is the question about who voters think their neighbor will vote for. The poll cites a Brookings Institution report that suggests this neighbor vote is among the best predictors of election outcomes. According to the poll, a significant number of voters indicated that their neighbors are likely to vote for Trump, with 43% supporting him compared to 31% for Biden.
Overall, the new analysis from TIPP/Insights suggests that Trump may have the lead in the race for the presidency based on various indicators such as independent voter support, declining support from minority voters, and voter expectations. As the election approaches, these factors could play a crucial role in determining the outcome.
