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The latest Detroit News/WDIV poll by the Glengariff Group throws a fresh wrinkle into Michigan’s high‑stakes Senate fight. Republican nominee Mike Rogers now holds a narrow lead over Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed, reversing a run of late‑August surveys that had the Democrat ahead. It’s close, messy and exactly the kind of race that will come down to turnout and undecided voters who still haven’t made up their minds.
What the new poll shows: a hairline lead, but still a toss‑up
The statewide poll puts Rogers at 45.8 percent and El‑Sayed at 44.4 percent among likely voters, with about 9 percent undecided. The sample was roughly 600 likely voters and the margin of sampling error is about ±4 points, so that 1.4‑point lead lives entirely inside the noise. Translation: Rogers has momentum, but nobody should break out the victory banner yet.
Turnout, enthusiasm and the Trump factor
The pollster flagged a key split: when you look at the voters who say they “definitely” will vote, El‑Sayed leads 46.7 to 44.4. There’s also a roughly 10‑point enthusiasm gap between base Republicans and base Democrats who say they’ll definitely show up. And yes, President Donald Trump’s job approval in Michigan — stuck in the mid‑30s in this survey — is the elephant in the room. The undecided voters here skew anti‑Trump, which means national headlines and the president’s standing will keep shifting this race.
Why Michigan matters and where the votes are
This open seat is one of the few that can decide control of the U.S. Senate, so both parties are treating Michigan like a gold rush. Rogers runs stronger with independents, older voters and voters without a college degree, while El‑Sayed carries younger voters, college grads and Black voters. That split is predictable. What isn’t predictable is who actually shows up — and right now the “definitely will vote” slice favors the Democrat.
What to watch and how campaigns should act
Expect both campaigns to pounce on the new numbers. The Rogers team should keep courting independents and trim any overreach that would scare moderate voters. Democrats need to turn concern into action — not just run progressive celebrity ads, but get their people to the polls. For conservatives, the message is simple: stay organized, keep the enthusiasm up, and don’t let the media narrative lull you into complacency. In a race this tight, a few thousand votes — or a few percentage points of turnout — will decide who sits in that Senate chair.
