admin
SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut has arrived with a spectacle of numbers and opinions. The company priced its IPO at $135 per share, valuing the firm at roughly $1.7–$1.8 trillion and offering about 555.6 million shares under the ticker SPCX. But not everyone agrees that $135 is a fair starting point. Morningstar pegs a probability‑weighted fair value at just $63 a share, while a couple of Wall Street shops are waving bullish targets of $165 and $190. That gulf is the real story: who’s being realistic and who’s selling hope with a bow?
The valuation schism: $63 vs. $135 vs. $165–$190
The headlines are blunt: Morningstar says $63. SpaceX priced the IPO at $135. Oppenheimer put a 12–18 month target of $190 and New Street started coverage at $165. Those numbers don’t differ by a rounding error — they tell totally different stories about risk and reward. Morningstar used a probability‑weighted DCF model and three scenarios to get to $63. The bulls used aggressive growth forecasts for orbital compute and rapid Starship reuse to justify their higher targets. In plain terms, one side is pricing in big engineering wins and mass commercial success. The other side is saying, “Show me the rocket that flies like an airliner and the data centers that actually pencil out.”
Why Morningstar won’t pay for science fiction
Morningstar’s report is not a hatchet job. It breaks SpaceX into parts: the real, visible businesses today — Starlink connectivity and launch services — plus speculative, high‑value projects like orbital data centers and a fully reusable Starship that launches many times a week. Morningstar counts about $40 a share in the clear businesses and treats the rest as optional upside. Its most bullish “moonshot” scenario pushes value near $154 a share, but it gives that outcome a single‑digit chance. Morningstar also leans on SpaceX’s own S‑1: revenue of about $18.7 billion in 2025 and a GAAP net loss around $4.9 billion. In short, the math says you’re paying a premium today for bets that may or may not pay off years from now.
Why some Wall Street analysts are still popping the cork
Not everyone reads the S‑1 the same way. Oppenheimer argues SpaceX is uniquely positioned as a vertically integrated company that can combine satellites, compute, and manufacturing to dominate AI infrastructure — hence the $190 target. New Street projects far bigger revenues by 2030 and an earlier path to profit. Those views depend on rapid scale and market share wins — big assumptions, sure, but plausible to get to those higher valuations. Add in market mechanics — a relatively small free float, heavy institutional demand, and index or ETF buying rules — and you get a realistic chance of an early trading pop that has nothing to do with long‑term fundamentals.
Bottom line for investors: excitement ≠ value
If you like rockets and dream of orbital data centers, this IPO is catnip. If you prefer returns grounded in today’s cash flows, Morningstar’s cold math is a needed reality check. Retail investors should remember that IPOs can bubble in on sentiment and then reset when the hard work — engineering, margins, and profit — has to be delivered. And don’t forget the governance note: founder control remains concentrated, which matters when the company faces hard choices. My advice? Enjoy the spectacle. Just don’t confuse fanfare for investment discipline. Pay attention to the numbers, not the pep rallies.
