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Stephen Moore dropped a short PragerU video this week arguing that millions of Americans are voting with their feet — leaving high‑tax “blue” states and moving to lower‑tax “red” states. The video points to Census population moves and IRS state‑to‑state income flows to make a bold claim: not only are people leaving, but their taxable income is leaving too. That matters for state budgets, services, and politics — and liberals blaming the sunshine just won’t cut it anymore.
What the new PragerU video says — and the numbers behind it
Moore cites two federal sources you already hear about at Thanksgiving: the Census state‑to‑state migration counts and the IRS “income migration” files that track adjusted gross income (AGI) moving with filers. The basic pattern is clear in both datasets: big numeric gains for Florida and Texas and big losses for California, New York, and Illinois in recent years. Independent IRS summaries show Florida picking up roughly $20 billion in net AGI in one recent filing year while California and New York each lost roughly $10–12 billion in that same year. Conservative analysts have rolled those single years into multi‑year totals that make the headlines — think millions of people and hundreds of billions (or more) of AGI moving south and west.
Why conservatives say this matters: taxes, affordability and the tax base
Here’s the plain point: state tax policy changes who wants to live and work where. Low or no state income tax in places like Florida and Tennessee makes them attractive to families, small business owners, and higher earners alike. When wealthy filers leave, their taxable income goes with them. Less taxable income means less money for schools, police, and roads — or it means higher taxes on those who stayed. That’s not theory. It’s basic math. So the migration story is not just lifestyle drama; it’s a fiscal story with political consequences.
Yes, it’s complicated — but don’t let complexity hide the truth
To be fair, researchers warn against treating any single dataset as gospel. The Census counts people; the IRS tracks filers and AGI in the year of the move. Remote work, housing costs, crime, schools, weather, and family ties also push people around. Methodological choices change the size of the headline totals. Fine. But complexity is no excuse for denial. Multiple independent measures point to the same direction: there is a meaningful transfer of population and taxable income from some high‑tax, high‑cost states to lower‑tax states. Call it many causes, one result.
Political stakes and the takeaways for voters
What should voters and policymakers do with this? First, stop the reflex to blame sunshine or geography when policy choices push people away. Second, Republicans should press the case: lower taxes, fewer strangling regulations, and sensible budgets keep people and dollars at home. Finally, blue‑state leaders face a real question — do they raise taxes to chase revenues lost to migration, or do they reform to keep people from leaving? Either way, the PragerU video did us a service by turning a data trend into a political talking point. Watch where people go, and you’ll see which policies work — or don’t.
